Tropical Atlantic on Cruise Control for Another Week

The late July doldrums continue, but be on the lookout for an early August wake-up call

Monday morning satellite showing an extensive plume of Saharan dust (rusty, hazy appearance) veiling the Atlantic from Africa through the Caribbean. Credit: NOAA

The post-Beryl Atlantic hangover will keep the tropics bedridden for at least another week, with no development expected into the twilight days of July.

As we covered in our daily updates last week, the Atlantic has been consumed with rounds of Saharan dust and sinking air which are quickly extinguishing any areas of persistent storminess.

A large area of sinking air has settled across the eastern Pacific and Atlantic in recent weeks, stifling organized tropical development. The rising air branch – characteristic of widespread storminess and higher tropical development odds – is confined to the western Pacific for now. Over the weekend, the western Pacific recorded two named storms, the first named storms since late May, one of its longest stretches without any named storm activity.

The most recent spate of dust is the most expansive of the year, sprinkling the skies over South Florida this past weekend and forecast to waft as far west as South Texas by later this week.

The multi-week pause in Atlantic activity follows Hurricane Beryl – the strongest and longest-lived major hurricane on record prior to August – which ravaged parts of the Caribbean before slamming into southeastern Texas two weeks ago today, cutting power to millions in the Houston area – lasting over a week in some spots – and claiming at least a dozen lives in its aftermath from prolonged power outages and excessive heat.

The calm before the storms

Several forecast factors suggest we may be in for a rude awakening in August. Models indicate rising air returning to the Atlantic in about 2 weeks. Additionally, while the waters of the eastern equatorial Pacific have been somewhat sluggish to transition to La Niña, we’re seeing signs the slow but steady Pacific cooldown will begin to affect the tropical atmosphere come August, including a reduction in hostile wind shear over the Atlantic by early next month.

Long-range forecast from the European model ensemble system showing a strong signal for much lower-than-average wind shear across the Atlantic. This pattern of reduced wind shear in particular indicates a weakening of the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough or TUTT, one of the big hurdles to hurricane development in July and August. Credit: TropicalTidbits.com

All the while waters across the deep tropical Atlantic are on another warming trend, as we discussed last Wednesday. So once activity resumes, as it always does, there will be plenty of ocean fuel to power would-be storms.

In the meantime, enjoy the interlude which may last through the month. August is right around the corner and we fully expect the Atlantic to make up for lost time.