Quiet End to October After a Record-Breaking Start

Tropical development odds nil until at least later next week

After a banner start to October that included 3 simultaneous hurricanes (Kirk, Leslie, and Milton) during its first week – a first in our recordbooks for the month of October – with more activity packed into one month than we see in some Augusts and Septembers (traditionally our busiest months) combined, including the strongest hurricane in almost two decades (Milton), a devastating Florida hurricane hit and a surprise hurricane (Oscar) – the smallest we’ve ever measured – last weekend, the tropics are finally simmering down to end the month.

It's been wild ride during what is conventionally the home stretch of the season.

Caribbean in the spotlight for later next week

As we’ve discussed in earlier newsletters, we’ll have our eye on the Caribbean for the middle to latter part of next week and into next weekend.

We haven’t seen any big changes in the models with the possibility of mischief in the central or southwestern Caribbean next week, aside from perhaps pushing the development window back to next weekend or even early the following week.

Probability of a tropical cyclone passing within about 175 miles of a given location from next Thursday, October 31^st through next Friday, November 1^st based on the European model ensemble forecast system. The extended range ensemble forecast considers 100 different plausible scenarios (plus a control run). Models suggest the system could be slow to move and organize, but for now keep development odds well south and east of Florida and the mainland U.S. Credit: Weathermodels.com

Generally, conditions look to favor some gradual organization of increasing storminess by next Thursday and Friday. Models are keying in on the area around eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti for low-pressure development, but it’s still hazy how organized things actually get.

Forecast low-pressure tracks from the European model ensemble system through Sunday, November 3^rd (a week from this upcoming Sunday). Each track depicts a scenario based off different starting conditions and suggests wide uncertainty of what comes out of the Caribbean. For now, models generally suggest a broad and weak scenario well south of the U.S. mainland. Credit: Weathernerds.org

As we mentioned yesterday, it’s too far out to concern ourselves with and at this point in the season, mainland U.S. threats become an odd exception. If that doesn’t provide extra comfort, wind shear is locked in along our coastlines – including here in South Florida – for the foreseeable future, which will help to keep any shenanigans to our south through next week.