Keeping an Eye to the Caribbean for Next Week

No development expected in the near term, but that could change by the latter part of next week

The 2024 hurricane season has been exceptionally backloaded, with activity peaking during what is typically the downswing portion of the season.

The unusually late uptick in activity slingshot the 2024 season to above average levels in nearly every department, including the number of named storms, hurricanes, and Category 3 or stronger hurricanes.

While it hasn’t fully hit the hyperactive expectations headed into the season, it’s not far off. This year has recorded not only the highest number of hurricanes since the historically active 2020 season but, with 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, among the most U.S. hurricane hits of any season stretching back over 100 years.

Although we still have 37 days left officially in the season, with hundreds of fatalities across multiple states – 96 alone in North Carolina from Hurricane Helene as of this writing – and total damage estimates approaching $100 billion in the U.S., the 2024 hurricane season will go down as one of the most impactful in the modern record.

Hurricane season is getting long in the tooth so we’re hopeful the mainland U.S. is done for the year, but as we discussed yesterday every blue moon we do see a November impact in the U.S., so it’s worth staying vigilant, especially during a season like this one that’s been so tilted with activity in what’s usually the home stretch.

Another Caribbean disturbance could take shape later next week

As we’ve discussed in newsletters earlier this week, long-range models are advertising storminess on the rise with the possibility of low-pressure formation in the central and southwestern Caribbean in the Wednesday to Saturday time frame next week.

Probability of a tropical cyclone passing within about 175 miles of a given location from next Friday, November 1^st through next Saturday, November 2^nd based on the European model ensemble forecast system. The extended range forecast is based on 100 different scenarios (plus a control run) that consider different starting conditions which could affect the future forecast. Models suggest the system could be slow to move, but for now keep it well south and east of Florida and the mainland U.S. Credit: Weathermodels.com

Any development is still a week or more out and models suggest whatever comes could be slow to consolidate, so it’s far too soon to talk specifics. You may have seen some of the scary-looking, long-range forecasts from the American GFS, but those aren’t based in reality and are a persistent bullish bias the model has in that region.

Overall, however, the signal is fairly robust and consistent for something to form later next week but the verdict’s out on how organized it gets or where it heads. So we’ll monitor the trends, but for now it’s nothing we need to get too excited over.