Extreme Hurricane Milton Takes Aim, Tampa Bay Region Braces for a Worst-Case Scenario
National Hurricane Center: “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida”
Milton rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane on Monday morning at a rate rarely seen and is on course to strike west-central Florida as one of the most impactful U.S. hurricanes in modern memory.
On Monday the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay warned “If Milton stays on its course, this will be the most powerful hurricane to hit Tampa Bay in over 100 years. No one in the area has ever experienced a hurricane this strong before.”
Forecast models have exhibited little deviation in Milton’s eventual landing point in Florida, honing in on the zone between Tarpon Springs north of Tampa to Venice south of Sarasota.
Those areas near and to the south of where Milton’s center comes ashore will see the worst of its life-threatening and catastrophic storm surge.
The National Hurricane Center is now predicting up to 15 feet of storm surge along this stretch of west-central Florida’s coastline, their highest storm surge forecasts ever issued for these areas.
It can’t be overstated how important Milton’s track will be to where the worst storm surge impacts will occur, but with an average track error of 60-70 miles this far out – about the distance from Tarpon Springs to Venice – is impossible to know the important details of where the worst storm surge will push ashore.
Regardless, Milton is forecast to grow in size as it approaches Florida late tomorrow into the early hours Thursday, so its footprint along the shoreline will be widely felt. Damaging and life-threatening storm surge is expected through much of southwest Florida, including places like Fort Myers, which was devastated by Hurricane Ian two years ago.
If the worst-case forecast materializes for the Tampa Bay Region, Milton’s storm surge could double the storm surge levels observed two weeks ago during Helene, which brought some of the most consequential flooding the area has seen in recent memory.
The threat to life and property from Milton is extreme and those residing in low-lying or vulnerable areas being asked to evacuate should do so without delay.
The most intense hurricane in nearly two decades
Milton rapidly strengthened on Monday at a dizzying pace – from an 85 mph Category 1 hurricane 24 hours earlier to a 180 mph Category 5 hurricane – one of the fastest rates of strengthening ever observed in the Atlantic basin.
Of the nearly 2,000 tropical cyclones in the historical record, only Wilma in 2005 and Felix in 2007 strengthened at a faster clip than Milton.
Milton’s center pressure dipped to 897 mb on Monday, the lowest pressure recorded anywhere in the western hemisphere in almost two decades, putting it in an elite class of sub-900 mb hurricanes. Only the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Allen (1980), Gilbert (1988), Rita (2005), and Wilma (2005) are known to have had minimum pressures below 900 mb, a trait of only our most intense hurricanes.
Milton also exhibited the dreaded pinhole eye on Monday, with its calm, cloud-free eye contracting to a remarkably small 4-mile diameter (the average hurricane eye is about 20-40 miles across), another characteristic of hurricanes undergoing extreme rates of strengthening.
As is to be expected for a storm of its magnitude, Milton underwent its first eyewall replacement overnight, whereby the ring of strongest winds and worst weather immediately encircling its eye – the primary eyewall – ceded to a larger ring of storms farther away from the center – the secondary eyewall. The secondary eyewall starves the inner eyewall of life-giving inflow, which weakens and eventually collapses the inner eyewall.
The full eyewall replacement cycle can take 12 to 24 hours or longer to complete and during the process the hurricane’s winds often temporarily decrease. Once the secondary eyewall takes over, however, the now larger hurricane can reintensify and the cycle repeats as the new eyewall contracts inward – like a figure skater drawing their arms inward to spin faster.
Milton is now solidly on the backside of its first eyewall replacement cycle, which means another round of intensification is likely in the cards for today.
Milton should remain at or near Category 4 or 5 intensity – with some fluctuations up and down to these eyewall replacement cycles – at least through tomorrow afternoon. As it approaches Florida late Wednesday, it will feel the tug of increasing upper-level winds which will begin to stretch out its destructive winds.
Although its maximum winds are expected to decrease some as it nears landfall – most likely by late Wednesday or during the overnight hours into Thursday – it will be too little, too late. If anything, the growing size of the hurricane’s destructive wind field could pose an even greater risk to the coastline than a stronger hurricane of smaller size.
All else equal, bigger storms pose bigger problems.
Inland rainfall threat ramps up
Hurricane conditions will be felt well inland across central Florida, especially by early in the day (likely before daybreak) on Thursday. Hurricane warnings extend across the entirety of Florida’s central and northern peninsula to includes places like Orlando, Ocala, Daytona Beach, Melbourne, and St. Augustine.
Unlike on Florida’s west coast, where the catastrophic storm surge will be worst near and to the south of Milton’s center, the heaviest rainfall and strongest winds inland will be experienced near and immediately to the north of its center.
The Weather Prediction Center has issued a high risk of excessive rainfall – its highest flood threat category – for portions of central Florida beginning tomorrow through early Thursday in anticipation of significant and potentially catastrophic flash flooding from Milton’s heavy rainfall.
The risk of inland flooding has increased substantially from earlier forecasts and stretches the entirely of Florida’s I-4 corridor. This includes cities like Tampa/St. Pete, Lakeland, and Orlando. Up to a foot or more of heavy rainfall is possible, even with Milton’s quickened pace across the state.
Storm surge will also be a problem north of Milton’s center along the northeast coast of Florida and southeast Georgia, including up the St. John’s River and near Jacksonville, where the elevated water levels may aggravate flooding from heavy rains early on Thursday.
Southeast Florida, including Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, will stay well removed from Milton’s damaging and destructive core. We expect one more day of widespread downpours and pockets of flooding before the greatest rain threat shifts northward tomorrow. Similar to Helene, winds will gust to tropical storm strength in the Miami and Fort Lauderdale metros – generally in the 40 to 50 mph range, especially by Wednesday night and early Thursday – but are not expected to reach hurricane strength.
No other Atlantic threats for now
The tropics look to settle down some in the wake of Milton. While we’re monitoring a few other areas over the open Atlantic, none will pose any threat to land in the week ahead.
Not happy with the news about Milton but nothing to do but accept and deal with it. It is what it is. Thank you Mr. Lowry for keeping us up to date. It is much appreciated.
Thanks for this update...