Milton Wallops West-Central Florida, Blankets the Peninsula with Violent Tornadoes
Milton made landfall as a major hurricane near Sarasota Wednesday night, unleashing widespread flooding, destructive winds, and deadly tornadoes
Only days after explosively strengthening into the most intense Gulf hurricane in nearly two decades, the eye of Hurricane Milton crossed west-central Florida’s coastline at Siesta Key near Sarasota – just 20 miles south of Tampa Bay – as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds around 8:30 PM local time yesterday evening.
During the day on Wednesday, scores of warnings were issued for violent Midwest-style supercell tornadoes clear across to Florida’s east coast as the outer bands from Milton forewarned its looming landfall.
In total, the National Weather Service issued 126 tornado warnings across the state on Wednesday, the most ever issued for a single calendar day for the state in records dating back to 1986.
It nearly doubled the number of tornado warnings issued on any previous calendar day for Florida – 69 tornado warnings issued during Hurricane Irma in 2017 – and was the most number of tornado warnings issued for any state in a single calendar day since the 134 tornado warnings issued in Alabama during the historic April 2011 Super Outbreak.
Milton’s stinging back side
Milton’s track just south of Tampa Bay spared the populated Tampa/St. Pete coastline catastrophic storm surge – with strong offshore winds to the north of the center drawing water out of Tampa Bay by up to 5 feet – but the southerly track put the Tampa Bay area on the hurricane’s windy and rainy north side, a scenario we detailed in yesterday’s newsletter.
The stinging back side of Milton delivered wind gusts above 100 mph from Tampa Bay southward to Sarasota and Venice, including wind gusts to 105 mph at Egmont Channel west of Tampa Bay and 102 mph at Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport about an hour after Milton’s center made landfall. Winds tore through downtown Tampa, downing construction cranes and shredding the roof off Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, a site being staged as a 10,000-person base camp for post-landfall responders.
As waters blew out of Tampa Bay, rainfall poured in from above. Downtown Tampa’s Bayshore Boulevard – a frequent coastal flood casualty from storm tides raising waters in Tampa Bay – was awash in rainwater as Tampa officially recorded more rainfall in 24 hours than it had in any previous October calendar month since 1890. St. Petersburg topped 18.43 inches of rain by midnight – with an incredible 5 inches falling in the span of an hour – the type of rainfall St. Pete might expect once every 500 years on average, according to NOAA.
Widespread rainfall totals of over a foot fell across the busy I-4 corridor through early Thursday from Tampa/St. Pete to Lakeland in the west to Clermont, Apopka, and New Smyrna Beach in the east.
During the midnight hours, winds gusted as high as 74 mph at Orlando International Airport – similar to the gusty winds measured there during Hurricanes Irma and Ian in 2017 and 2022, respectively – and winds topped 87 mph in the predawn hours Thursday at Daytona Beach on Florida’s east coast as Milton’s blustery north side slide across east-central Florida.
As of daybreak Thursday, over 3 million customers across Florida’s peninsula were without power.
Awaiting reports from hardest hit coastal zone
The worst of Milton’s devastating storm surge came ashore along the barrier islands stretching from Longboat Key and Siesta Key west of Sarasota-Bradenton southward to Manasota Key and Boca Grande south of Venice. These areas were largely emptied out by way of evacuation orders before Milton, and with little access and communication established, we don’t yet know the full scope of Milton’s worst storm surge.
Based on the hurricane’s track, it’s likely storm surge flooding surpassed 10 feet in these hardest hit areas.
Destructive storm surge flooding also pushed into Charlotte Harbor and up the Peace River, sending major flooding into parts of Punta Gorda late Wednesday. More than 5 feet of storm surge flooding was reported at NOAA tide gauges as far south as Naples and Fort Myers, causing another round of major, extensive flooding only two weeks after Helene brough major flood levels to these same areas.
According to NOAA, the amount of coastal flooding in Fort Myers and Naples should happen on average about once every 30 to 60 years, but it’s happened now three times in a span of two years (Ian in 2022 and Helene and Milton this season) for these coastal areas, a brutal outcome of rising seas and a spate of strong hurricanes targeting Florida’s west coast.
Milton pulling away while the Atlantic takes a breath
Milton will continue to accelerate away from Florida today, though gusty winds and moderate to major coastal flooding will persist through much of the day from strong onshore winds across parts of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, including up the St. John’s River near Jacksonville.
Conditions should greatly improve across the Sunshine State by Friday and into the weekend, with Milton ushering in fall’s first cold front and push of dry air down through South Florida, a scenario we discussed in detail in this newsletter 8 days ago.
After an unprecedented stretch of activity for the first 10 days of October, the Atlantic looks to catch its breath. Like most storms during this busty stretch, Leslie in the wide open Atlantic continued to overachieve forecasts yesterday, strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane. It looks like it’s finally peaked and will be staying out to sea.
Otherwise we don’t see any nearby tropical mischief on the near-horizon. Models are suggesting increased storminess once again in the western Caribbean by the latter part of next week, but the signal for organized development in the models remains weak for now.
I rode out the storm here just outside of Punta Gorda. We had storm surge into town like had never been seen before though Helene was close. I had water up over the first step to my house but fortunately it didn't come in but I am on higher ground than the city is.
There was one tornado near or in Clewiston that was the strongest ever seen in southwestern or central Florida It was a huge monster for down here and quite wide. According to the meteorologist at WINK News we had never had such a large outbreak of tornadoes before, many only separated by a few miles. It was not a pleasant experience.
Interestingly though I has seen him on a vid earlier up in Tampa Jim Cantore was on another one late at night from the Sunseeker Resort in Port Charlotte, just across the river from Punta Gorda showing it flooded.
I think the forecasters at the NHC need to do some soul searching on initial forecast and intensification. I wish my bookie would allow me to submit an “amended forecast” a few minutes after the outcome of the game has been determined…