Hurricane Season Hanging on with November System on Deck

A tropical depression or named storm could form by this weekend or early next week but long-term prospects remain muddled

As we first detailed in this newsletter last Thursday, a tropical depression or named storm could come together by this weekend or early next week as it meanders around in the central and western Caribbean.

The next name on the list is Patty.

Where’s it headed?

The system was first mentioned by the National Hurricane Center late Saturday, and while the development prospects have ticked up incrementally since, there has been better clarity on its eventual movement – now toward the northwest next week rather than northeast as initially indicated.

Progression of 6-hourly tropical weather outlooks from the National Hurricane Center from last Saturday evening (October 26^th) through this morning. Development odds have ticked up to about 50/50 today but now show a development zone toward the western Caribbean rather than into the eastern Caribbean as initially predicted.

This westward shift was a change we discussed in detail on Tuesday and could bring a developing system toward Central America and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula for Tuesday into Wednesday of next week (November 5-6).

Will it be a problem for the mainland U.S.?

The verdict’s still out on how organized the system will get. While wind shear looks light over the western Caribbean next week, as we discussed yesterday, drier, stable air infiltrating the Caribbean from the Gulf may be problematic for earnest development. That said, more scenarios than not show some development, so odds are we’ll have something to track come next week.

Beyond mid next week, high pressure steering suggests whatever comes of this slips into the Gulf of Mexico southwest of Florida. It’s really too soon to speculate deep into next week, but hostile wind shear consistent with what we’d expect in the Gulf in early November, says this doesn’t make it very far.

Animation of 48-hour probabilities of a tropical system passing to within about 175 miles of any given location from late tomorrow (November 1^st) through Saturday, November 9^th (a week from this Saturday) from the European model ensembles. Models show the system’s forward progress being interrupted by hostile conditions once it reaches the Gulf late next week. Credit: Weathermodels.com

This firehose of shear also gets an alley-oop from quickly-cooling waters over the central and northern Gulf, stacking the odds against this one being an issue for the mainland U.S. for now.

We’ll of course continue to follow the trends in the days ahead but for us stateside the tropics aren’t worth getting spooked over this Halloween.