Forecast Models Waffle on Caribbean Development

Forecast models soften development picture, slide development window into next week

Overnight computer models waffled on the outlook for a disturbance we’ve been following in the southwestern and central Caribbean, softening its development prospects and pushing back the development window into early next week.

It’s still to be seen if the about-face is a bearish trend with the models or a short-term blip. Regardless, the overall environment for the system remains fairly conducive for gradual organization into the weekend and the National Hurricane Center is maintaining a medium chance for formation of a tropical depression or named storm as it loiters about in the Caribbean into next week.

The next name on the list is Patty.

In no hurry to form or move

As we discussed in yesterday’s newsletter, the area of storminess will take some time to cook and will drift about in the southwestern and central Caribbean for the next 5 days or so.

It’s not until around Election Day next week that we see steering currents begin to strengthen, and high pressure building to the north should begin to guide the system northwestward toward Central America or Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula by the middle part of next week.

Forecast low-pressure tracks through Election Day (next Tuesday, November 5^th) from the European model ensemble system showing a slow drift northward followed by a turn northwestward by early next week. Forecast scenarios generally keep the system weak and broad through the early part of next week. Credit: Weathernerds.org

A less friendly Gulf ahead

For now our global models aren’t especially enthusiastic about significant organization, keeping the area of spin broad into next week. The biggest deterrent to development in the week ahead looks to be drier air leaking down into the western Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico which may stifle organized thunderstorm growth.

Strong high-pressure steering suggests the whole system eventually sneaks into the Gulf of Mexico later next week but the odds of it surviving once it hits the Gulf are quite low. In all likelihood, if it makes it north of the Yucatan, it’ll gets quickly mangled by hostile wind shear.

The Gulf isn’t a friendly place for wanna-be tropical systems come November and water temperatures have cooled substantially just in the past few weeks from recurring fall cold fronts, making the waters less inviting for tropical mischief.

We’ll keep tabs on the trends but for now this is something to monitor for interests in the Caribbean and Central America and not a concern for Florida or the mainland U.S.