Watching for Possible Weekend Development in the Gulf

Forecast models for now suggest slow and messy development, with a period of wet weather affecting parts of Florida beginning later this week

Tuesday morning Atlantic satellite (combined enhanced/color satellite) showing invest 91L and Kirk (far right), the remnants of Joyce over the central Atlantic, and disorganized storminess being monitored for development in the western Caribbean. Credit: Colorado State University/CIRA

We continue to monitor a disturbance lifting northward from the western Caribbean for possible development over the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

Forecast models are not bullish on this system as they were on the disturbance that became Helene and, as we mentioned in yesterday’s newsletter, development isn’t a slam dunk. That said, some gradual organization by late week and over the weekend is more likely than not, but the system is not a fast mover and will linger in the Gulf into next week.

Low-pressure tracks through next Monday afternoon (October 7^th) from the European forecast model ensemble system. Each track represents a possible scenario based on different starting conditions. Models continue to advertise a slow-moving and disorganized system suggestive of a lopsided tropical depression or tropical storm, with weather affecting the eastern Gulf and parts of Florida into early next week. Credit: Weathernerds.org

This means that regardless of development, parts of Florida are likely in for a period of wet weather starting Thursday or Friday and persisting through early next week. Though it’s too soon to know the details of where heavier rainfall could occur, the official forecast for now advertises only modest rain totals over the next 7 days.

Rainfall totals through next Tuesday (October 8^th) morning from the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center. The higher totals across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and parts of Florida indicate the tropical influence from the system being monitored for possible development this week. Credit: Pivotal Weather

Even so, wet and windy weather, with the possibility of minor or moderate coastal flooding, could affect ongoing recovery efforts in parts of Florida recently hit by Helene, so we’ll want to monitor the trends.

For us in South Florida, the upshot could be an increase in storminess to end the week, but models do not currently indicate a significant tropical threat.

Roadblocks ahead

Unlike with Helene, the environment ahead in the Gulf poses some obstacles to sustained development. The tallest hurdle will be strong jet stream winds digging into the northern Gulf come the latter part of the week that will create a zone of nearby hostile wind shear.

These strong west-to-east winds aloft not only could act to stymie development, but will likely make any organizing system lopsided, so that most weather is blown to the east, putting Florida and the eastern Gulf on the downwind side to receive any wet and windy weather.

Simulated satellite from the European forecast model for next Sunday, October 6^th. The model simulation gives a flavor for what a broad and lopsided system could look like next weekend. This is only one solution very far out in time, so expect the actual details to differ. Those folks recently affected by Helene, especially, should follow the trends because even a disorganized system could affect ongoing recovery efforts. Credit: Weathermodels.com

Though soupy tropical air will sneak into the western Gulf by late week, the system isn’t expected to pose a direct threat to the western Gulf or the Texas Gulf Coast.

Forecast models have pushed development chances back over the past few days toward late weekend and into next week as the system hangs around, so unfortunately we may be babysitting this one for a little while.

Big hurricanes returning to the Atlantic

Across the wider Atlantic, we’re expecting to see a return of big hurricanes going into the first full week of October, an unusually late point in the season for powerful hurricanes east of the islands. The last major hurricane to churn over Atlantic waters east of the Caribbean was Beryl way back on July 1^st.

First up, Kirk over the central Atlantic is forecast to strengthen into a formidable Category 3 or 4 hurricane by week’s end.

Although Kirk will be turning north and staying over the open Atlantic, long-period swell from the large hurricane could reach all the way to the U.S. Eastern Seaboard – from the Mid-Atlantic into coastal areas of the northeast – by early to middle of next week.

Significant wave height (the average of the top 33% of waves) forecast for next Tuesday (October 8^th) morning showing swell from Kirk reaching from the Mid-Atlantic into the shores of New England. Credit: Weathermodels.com

Behind Kirk, Invest 91L has been designated off the coast of Africa and will develop into a named storm over the next day or two. Computer models show 91L strengthening into a powerful hurricane next week but like Kirk it should turn well east of the islands.