OK, have you read this, Laura? It is a tropical depression. This latest track can still change. It still hasn't even formed yet into a storm. It LOOKS like it COULD go toward Tampa as a Cat 3, IF this does form and goes your direction. There is no immediate danger now, but you may want to think about possible preps on the weekend, just in case. Stay tuned to WPLG for the latest updates, and this site.
Generally so, but much of the forecasting you see just for ordinary weather, is largely model-driven today not like the olden days of sleight-of-hand weather forecasting back in my day in the '60s and '70s. Today's hurricane forecasting, that's also pretty much model driven; they DO have to adjust these model tracks and especially intensity, and intensity forecasts often are not that great compared to track forecasts. How do you know if a forecast several days in advance is gonna be the correct solution? The key is consistency. If a model or consensus of them continue to say the same thing for several days in a row, that is your clue that, in the case of storms, you know this is serious. It's a heads-up to be prepared in case the forecast storm DOES indeed come to fruition.
OK, have you read this, Laura? It is a tropical depression. This latest track can still change. It still hasn't even formed yet into a storm. It LOOKS like it COULD go toward Tampa as a Cat 3, IF this does form and goes your direction. There is no immediate danger now, but you may want to think about possible preps on the weekend, just in case. Stay tuned to WPLG for the latest updates, and this site.
Generally so, but much of the forecasting you see just for ordinary weather, is largely model-driven today not like the olden days of sleight-of-hand weather forecasting back in my day in the '60s and '70s. Today's hurricane forecasting, that's also pretty much model driven; they DO have to adjust these model tracks and especially intensity, and intensity forecasts often are not that great compared to track forecasts. How do you know if a forecast several days in advance is gonna be the correct solution? The key is consistency. If a model or consensus of them continue to say the same thing for several days in a row, that is your clue that, in the case of storms, you know this is serious. It's a heads-up to be prepared in case the forecast storm DOES indeed come to fruition.