I have absolutely no evidence other than a hunch that the Saharan dust plume is going to be more prolonged this year than usual..perhaps setting some records. That may keep things quiet longer than usual. Just a guess..
This year in cyclone blogging is already a success in that the state of the SAL has entered the mainstream of discussion. But for the dust plume to set records would require a relapse in the changes to high level wind patterns? My understanding is that these were long-term changes.
Meanwhile, perhaps the Atlantic lull is an opportunity to discuss other topics For one, I am curious why the IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) rating of storms has not seemed to catch on? Too new? It fixes the obvious issue with ACE in that the latter does not account for the size of storms. I haven't been able to find any IKE calculations for Beryl, and I'm very interested to see them as it was relatively small.
Finally, we would be remiss to point out that the terms "incredible" "unprecedented" et al apply equally to the Eastern Pacific season -- except in the opposite direction: super quiet. E..g. July 4 is the latest first-named-storm ever. It seems intuitive to suggest that high-energy in the Atlantic is in equilibrium to low-energy in the EP?
I have absolutely no evidence other than a hunch that the Saharan dust plume is going to be more prolonged this year than usual..perhaps setting some records. That may keep things quiet longer than usual. Just a guess..
Hoping you're right, Michael ⚘
This year in cyclone blogging is already a success in that the state of the SAL has entered the mainstream of discussion. But for the dust plume to set records would require a relapse in the changes to high level wind patterns? My understanding is that these were long-term changes.
Meanwhile, perhaps the Atlantic lull is an opportunity to discuss other topics For one, I am curious why the IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) rating of storms has not seemed to catch on? Too new? It fixes the obvious issue with ACE in that the latter does not account for the size of storms. I haven't been able to find any IKE calculations for Beryl, and I'm very interested to see them as it was relatively small.
Finally, we would be remiss to point out that the terms "incredible" "unprecedented" et al apply equally to the Eastern Pacific season -- except in the opposite direction: super quiet. E..g. July 4 is the latest first-named-storm ever. It seems intuitive to suggest that high-energy in the Atlantic is in equilibrium to low-energy in the EP?
I'll take some quiet.