Lee Bound for Maine and Southeastern Canada this Weekend

Tropical storm winds likely as far south as coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island from Lee’s large circulation

Friday morning satellite of Hurricane Lee off the U.S. East Coast. Credit: NOAA

Hurricane Lee – the storm which grew from a tropical wave we first mentioned in this newsletter back on August 31^st before it had even emerged off Africa or garnered a yellow circle from NHC – will this weekend end its over 5,000-mile Atlantic journey spanning over 10 days. Since peaking as a 165-mph Category 5 hurricane early last Friday – only the 40^th Category 5 hurricane in the 173-year period of record – Lee’s peak winds have steadily weakened but at the expense of the hurricane over doubling in size.

Though Lee is now a Category 1 hurricane, its tropical storm winds span over 500 miles across, a distance of more than half the width of the Gulf of Mexico. By sheer size, Lee has been one of the widest reaching hurricanes of the past two decades and will sweep with it a tremendous amount of ocean energy to the shorelines of New England, Nova Scotia, and parts of New Brunswick this weekend.

Massachusetts and Rhode Island

Though Massachusetts and Rhode Island will largely escape the heavy rain threat as Lee’s core remains east, closer to the coast wind gusts of 40-60 mph beginning late Friday through Saturday morning could lead to sporadic power outages and downed trees, especially in areas where recently saturated soils have weakened root systems.

The greatest impacts south of Maine will fall along lower and outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, where squally rain, dangerous surf, and breaking waves will lash the coast. Fortunately, the strongest onshore winds will come closer to Saturday morning’s low tide, which should limit the extent of storm surge flooding for these areas.

Maine

Closer to Lee’s center along coastal Maine, the worst weather will arrive by late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Rainfall of 3-6 inches is possible, primarily east of Portland and heaviest Downeast, which could lead to localized flooding. The most hazardous conditions will be at the immediate coast Downeast where wind gusts above 60 mph could produce more widespread wind damage and power outages. Large waves will also lead to significant splash-over along Maine’s rocky coastline, especially around the time of high tide on Saturday. Lee will be accelerating into Atlantic Canada so conditions should improve quickly by late Saturday into early Sunday.

Margot meandering with Nigel on deck

Margot continues to weaken as it makes a clockwise loop over the east-central Atlantic. The system is expected to shed its tropical characteristics by next week and is no threat to land.

Meanwhile, Invest 97L between Africa and the Caribbean is almost a tropical depression. The system will likely become Nigel in the coming days and continue to strengthen, probably into Hurricane Nigel by early next week. A break in the subtropical high-pressure steering will allow the system to lift northwestward next week. Although we’re not anticipating future-Nigel to make it clear across the pond, we’ll need to continue to monitor its progress for Bermuda down the line. Any threat to Bermuda, if at all, wouldn’t come until middle to late next week.

Looking ahead to the last week of September

By late next week another potent tropical wave will emerge off Africa into a conducive environment for development. The National Hurricane Center currently gives the area a low chance of development over the next 7 days but that will likely rise as we get into next week.

The waters in the main development peak this time of year and the wave will be moving into a part of the Atlantic not cooled by recent storms.

We’ll have plenty of time to watch this, but it tells us the Atlantic will stay active through at least the remainder of the month.