Large Lee Leaves New England on Edge, Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Bermuda

Models shift west toward coastal New England for the weekend, increasing concerns for more significant impacts

It’s not every day a hurricane comes close enough to New England to cause direct impacts, but those that have – notorious names like Bob (1991) and Gloria (1985) or Carol (1954) and Edna (1954) – still live on in New England lore. Although Lee isn’t expected to be of the intensity of some of its infamous ancestors, its expansive wind field and approach around the new moon coming on the heels of recent severe flooding and waterlogged soils is bringing cause for concern, particularly nearer to the coast. Forecast models have waffled in recent days and overnight shifted west and precariously close to the U.S. coastline between Massachusetts and Maine, suggesting an increasing threat for the weekend.

Regardless, even if Lee remains away from the coast, dangerous surf, life-threatening rip currents, and the possibility of coastal flooding will accompany the hurricane up the Eastern Seaboard for the rest of the week. Residents and visitors to coastal New England should pay close attention to the forecasts over the next few days for potentially serious impacts by this weekend.

Lee’s hurricane wind field rivals one of the largest in recent decades

As we discussed in Monday’s newsletter, Lee completed an eyewall replacement cycle yesterday which over doubled the breadth of its peak winds. During the day Monday, its overall wind field continued to grow and by sunset, Lee’s hurricane force winds (74 mph or stronger) extended out over 125 miles from its center. Since 2004, only Hurricanes Ike (2008), Lorenzo (2019), Teddy (2020), and Sandy (2012) had as large or larger hurricane wind fields.

Don’t be lulled into complacency by Lee’s increasingly ragged appearance on satellite as it weakens in the coming days. Big hurricanes are big troublemakers and can have more destructive power than smaller, more intense ones. By any standard, Lee is a massive hurricane and is expected to remain so as it heads north, sweeping widespread dangerous marine, surf, and beach hazards up the U.S. Eastern Seaboard.

American GFS follows the European model’s lead, lurching left overnight

So far the European model has been the leftmost forecast model for Lee, showing the closest brush with New England for the weekend. Our other global models – including the American GFS, which has been on the rightmost edge and farthest offshore – shifted noticeably west overnight and now align more closely with the European model forecast.

Odds of Lee’s center passing within about 100 miles of a given location based on overnight runs of our global forecast models. The American GFS model trended west overnight and now aligns more closely with the European model forecast which takes the center of Lee precariously close to the coast of New England, increasing the threat for more significant impacts this weekend. Credit: Tomer Burg/University of Oklahoma

The major shift toward New England only 3 days prior to closest approach heightens the risk for more serious impacts, including heavy rain, widespread power outages, significant coastal erosion, and extensive coastal flooding around the times of high tide. For coastal Massachusetts – in particular Cape Cod, Nantucket, and exposed beaches up to Rockport – conditions will deteriorate beginning Friday and the worst weather will likely peak sometime Saturday. For coastal Maine, the weather will go downhill quickly during the day Saturday as Lee’s center nears the shoreline.

Bermuda under tropical storm warnings as Lee passes to the west

The center of Hurricane Lee is expected to pass within 150-200 miles west of Bermuda tomorrow. With tropical storm winds extending over 275 miles east of Lee’s center, however, tropical storm conditions can be expected to begin across Bermuda by as early as tonight. The primary threats to Bermuda will be dangerous, battering waves at the coast and gusty winds, especially in higher hills.

The bottom line

The threat for serious, direct impacts from Lee to New England is increasing. Although the hurricane’s peak winds will be decreasing on closest approach to coastal New England late Friday and Saturday, it will be transitioning to an even larger extratropical cyclone. This will enhance the wind/wave energy at the coast and rainfall potential inland, especially to the west of the storm in areas that have experienced recent severe flooding. With grounds oversaturated from one of the wettest summers on record and tree canopies still dense, strong winds and driving rains could pose significant problems by this weekend. Interests from Massachusetts to Maine should follow the forecasts closely in the days ahead.

Hurricane Margot peaks, next potential hurricane on deck

Hurricane Margot appears to have peaked in strength over the open east-central Atlantic. Cooler waters churned up by the slow movement of the hurricane along with a less hospitable environment should gradually weaken the hurricane in the coming days as it meanders across open seas.

We continue to follow a broad area of low pressure – designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center – moving westward through the tropical eastern Atlantic. Forecast models are keen on developing the system into Hurricane Nigel by next week. It won’t immediately turn out, so we’ll keep watch but for now it’s no immediate concern for land areas.