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So far, this new disturbance looks to be more or less of a Mexican problem and spare the U.S. if the track is correct.

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Looks like it but I just checked the NHC site and they now have it curving slightly north so could clip the very southernmost part of Texas. Still only at 30% chance of formation in 7 days but who knows what could change.

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30% is pretty typical for a 7-day stretch, especially when a storm hasn't even formed yet. It takes a while to form a storm, and formation chances are wind-shear dependent, not just water temps. The chances tend to go up as the event draws closer. So, possibly Brownsville could get hit, but this is very early. Cancun could definitely get hit.

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Yeah. My namesake hurricane went from a tropical storm to a Cat 3 overnight and then increased to a Cat 4. That is why I appreciate meteorologists giving worst case scenarios so one can plan for it. Even if it doesn't happen you can be ready if it does,

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