The new CSU seasonal forecast is a classic CYA by going 'middle of the road' on their 'old forecast and what the current metrics suggest is a below normal season.
Near and even below average SST's for the date in many areas of the MDR - and certainly cool by recent years' standards. Even tho the GOM is warmer than average (as are SSTs off the SE US coast), the higher REZ data barely notices the Gulf Stream (using SST's within it as a reference) - let alone any significant Loop current. I can't really recall seeing something like that in decades! The cooler SST's compared to recent years is also holding down instability & related convection - even within the ITCZ at times and especially across the MDR in general. And for the time being ENSO is essentially neutral and forecasting MJO intensity is a low skill endeavor beyond 2 weeks.
For a number of reasons - including the above -I suspect we'll see more named storms than normal, with 6 -7 of them reaching Hurricane intensity and a season ACE around 110-125.
If you want full funding for what you believe to be essential forecasting tools, then make suggestions on other areas to cut to provide said funding. The U.S. is nearly $37 TRILLION in debt. We are taxed enough.y suggestion is to remove ALL "pure-COVID-related" spending. That era is over, but the $100s of BILLIONS remain in the federal budget. This is ludicrous!!!!
So you have no ideas. That's brilliant. I will classify those of your ilk as a mindless liberals. I'm an Independent. You know, the group that thinks Democrats are left wing lunatics and prevented Kackles from destroying our country.
I have concerns about the ensembles giving a 20% chance of a tropical entity in the Gulf. ATTM, the most likely landfall according to the spaghettis is on the Southeastern LA coast. However, with SETX currently being sandwiched between 2 high pressure ridges, this does open the corridor for what I feel might be another Alicia. Now, what I need to know is: how does wind shear look for next week. You've stated a hostile windshear environment until will last at least August. Would this point to a mainly rain event for Houston, if anything next weekend. Please get back with me soon.
Well it's raining all over the Tx Gulf Coast right now & my assumption is that it's latent tropical build up - it's flash flooding in Corpus (a rarity) & lots of rain in Houston.
(No named systems)
I'm hoping it stops & things dry out before the Northern Gulf stuff starts up - I guess I'm worried that all these lingering areas of rain could psuedo-organize and just make abundant rains fall and fall. The MJO could really aggravate that.
Alicia was really difficult. I guess people are nervous about a repeat.
GEFS and ECENS runs show elevated moisture pooling across the northern Gulf, especially near SE Louisiana and the ALAMIS corridor.
Precipitable water values (PWATs) remain high—around 2.0–2.3 inches, which supports flash flooding if convection trains over the same area.
Houston’s moisture signal is moderate but still elevated enough to support daily downpours if a weak low drifts west.
The MJO remains disorganized, with no coherent eastward propagation as of early July. However, low-frequency convective signals are strengthening over the Maritime Continent and West Pacific, which could enhance rainfall across the Gulf via downstream Rossby wave interactions.
Equatorial Kelvin waves are active and may help trigger tropical mischief in the western hemisphere—but not full-blown cyclogenesis.
What It Means for Houston:
The atmosphere is moist, unstable, and primed for rain, but not yet supportive of tropical storm formation.
If the MJO pulse strengthens and aligns with a weak Gulf low, we could see enhanced rainfall, especially in areas already saturated.
For now, it’s a rain-heavy pattern, not a wind-driven one—and Houston’s biggest risk is flood fatigue, not hurricane-force damage.
The MJO remains disorganized, with no coherent eastward propagation across the tropical belt1
.
GEFS and ECMWF ensembles show low amplitude RMM index values, meaning the MJO signal is weak and unlikely to trigger widespread tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic or Gulf over the next 10–14 days
.
Enhanced convection is still focused over the Maritime Continent and West Pacific, not shifting toward the Americas yet
Ensemble Genesis Probabilities
GEFS and ECENS continue to show scattered low-pressure signals in the northern Gulf, especially near SE Louisiana and the ALAMIS corridor.
However, no strong clustering or pressure drops below 1003 mb are present—suggesting weak, rain-heavy systems, not hurricanes.
Moisture accumulation remains elevated, but without vertical stacking or closed lows, it’s more flash flood risk than wind threat.
What This Means for Houston
The atmosphere is primed for rain, but not for rapid intensification.
The MJO isn’t amplifying convection in the Gulf yet, and wind shear remains hostile, especially over the Caribbean and western Gulf.
Houston’s biggest concern remains flood fatigue, not a named storm—though vigilance is still warranted if the swirl persists.
Hopefully such a convective event will not evolve into another Texas-like storm and make 20-25-inch totals and mass flooding. We certainly don't need any more mass flood events, now New Mexico has some flood issues; North Carolina had a bigger blow than expected from Chantal, and even Chicago had one of its' most intense thunderstorms rain-wise in a long while with a half-foot in spots over a couple of hours.
I saw those flooding events, it seems like so many are occuring right now. I've lived in Central Tx, seen extensive damage before - just foundations & pipes where houses once were - and creeks becoming torrents, flooding my grandma's house. Salvaging what we could for her.
Floods are heartbreaking. Especially the recent ones.
All the latent heat and amped up atmosphere. I know it's not going to 'get better'. The physics of the Holocene were delicate and extraordinarily rare. We blew it.
We're all going to have to radically adapt. And finally understand that the atmosphere is one giant system, what affects one area on the planet affects another.
I’ve been watching the models dance around 93L’s remnants, and while it’s still mostly a blob, I’m noticing the ensemble spread beginning to tilt westward again....to Houston.
The 40% NHC odds grabbed my attention—not so much for imminent formation, but because they suggest the atmosphere is at least tolerating this system’s persistence. With shear relaxing slightly and SSTs firmly in the upper 80s, I’m wondering whether we’ll see pressures dip sub-1008 mb in the next couple runs. That could give it just enough identity to impact areas beyond nuisance rain.
I know it’s early, and I’m not sounding the alarm—but given the pattern similarity to last week’s Gulf slider, I’ll be keeping an eye on the Thursday-to-Saturday window. Appreciate your clarity and the effort to separate curiosity from concern.
I’m not saying we’re channeling Alicia here in Southeast Texas—just watching for her cousin’s ghost.
This reminds me of when I did airfield management in the Air Force. We had to be prepared to get a jump on any ice or snow forecasted to keep the airfield open for operations, and we relied heavily on the collocated base weather office to give use both possible and probable forecasts. One winter morning I went by the wx office to get the daily brief- no snow forecasted. I spent about an hour inspecting the airfield, checking on construction and dispersing wildlife (birds). I kept noticing increasingly dark clouds on the horizon, inquired once over the radio-no change in the forecast. Then it started snowing. I called it in, and went back to the office, stopping by the weather shop. The weather observer came in and informed the forecaster it was snowing, who remarked "Gee, I better amend my forecast..."
The new CSU seasonal forecast is a classic CYA by going 'middle of the road' on their 'old forecast and what the current metrics suggest is a below normal season.
Near and even below average SST's for the date in many areas of the MDR - and certainly cool by recent years' standards. Even tho the GOM is warmer than average (as are SSTs off the SE US coast), the higher REZ data barely notices the Gulf Stream (using SST's within it as a reference) - let alone any significant Loop current. I can't really recall seeing something like that in decades! The cooler SST's compared to recent years is also holding down instability & related convection - even within the ITCZ at times and especially across the MDR in general. And for the time being ENSO is essentially neutral and forecasting MJO intensity is a low skill endeavor beyond 2 weeks.
For a number of reasons - including the above -I suspect we'll see more named storms than normal, with 6 -7 of them reaching Hurricane intensity and a season ACE around 110-125.
If you want full funding for what you believe to be essential forecasting tools, then make suggestions on other areas to cut to provide said funding. The U.S. is nearly $37 TRILLION in debt. We are taxed enough.y suggestion is to remove ALL "pure-COVID-related" spending. That era is over, but the $100s of BILLIONS remain in the federal budget. This is ludicrous!!!!
Too simplistic a response to the nightmare administration currently doing the funding.
Oh, please. The previous guy was mentally incompetent. Remember what he said during the debate: "I killed Medicaid."
What would your solution be, other than "tax the rich?" The top 5% already pay 90%+ of the federal income taxes collected.
😂🤪🤣🙄
So you have no ideas. That's brilliant. I will classify those of your ilk as a mindless liberals. I'm an Independent. You know, the group that thinks Democrats are left wing lunatics and prevented Kackles from destroying our country.
I have concerns about the ensembles giving a 20% chance of a tropical entity in the Gulf. ATTM, the most likely landfall according to the spaghettis is on the Southeastern LA coast. However, with SETX currently being sandwiched between 2 high pressure ridges, this does open the corridor for what I feel might be another Alicia. Now, what I need to know is: how does wind shear look for next week. You've stated a hostile windshear environment until will last at least August. Would this point to a mainly rain event for Houston, if anything next weekend. Please get back with me soon.
Yeah, I'm kinda eyeing the tropical soupy mess meandering around LA/TX too - I don't like the looks or feel of it.
I second Paul's question.
Is there already a tropical soupy mess right now?
Well it's raining all over the Tx Gulf Coast right now & my assumption is that it's latent tropical build up - it's flash flooding in Corpus (a rarity) & lots of rain in Houston.
(No named systems)
I'm hoping it stops & things dry out before the Northern Gulf stuff starts up - I guess I'm worried that all these lingering areas of rain could psuedo-organize and just make abundant rains fall and fall. The MJO could really aggravate that.
Alicia was really difficult. I guess people are nervous about a repeat.
For July 14-22:
GEFS and ECENS runs show elevated moisture pooling across the northern Gulf, especially near SE Louisiana and the ALAMIS corridor.
Precipitable water values (PWATs) remain high—around 2.0–2.3 inches, which supports flash flooding if convection trains over the same area.
Houston’s moisture signal is moderate but still elevated enough to support daily downpours if a weak low drifts west.
The MJO remains disorganized, with no coherent eastward propagation as of early July. However, low-frequency convective signals are strengthening over the Maritime Continent and West Pacific, which could enhance rainfall across the Gulf via downstream Rossby wave interactions.
Equatorial Kelvin waves are active and may help trigger tropical mischief in the western hemisphere—but not full-blown cyclogenesis.
What It Means for Houston:
The atmosphere is moist, unstable, and primed for rain, but not yet supportive of tropical storm formation.
If the MJO pulse strengthens and aligns with a weak Gulf low, we could see enhanced rainfall, especially in areas already saturated.
For now, it’s a rain-heavy pattern, not a wind-driven one—and Houston’s biggest risk is flood fatigue, not hurricane-force damage.
That's really good information, Paul ⚘ thank you
You're welcome.
A tropical soupy mess must mean extremely humid air, very warm temps in the 80's or low 90's, and light upper winds.
MJO Phase Evolution, July 2025:
The MJO remains disorganized, with no coherent eastward propagation across the tropical belt1
.
GEFS and ECMWF ensembles show low amplitude RMM index values, meaning the MJO signal is weak and unlikely to trigger widespread tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic or Gulf over the next 10–14 days
.
Enhanced convection is still focused over the Maritime Continent and West Pacific, not shifting toward the Americas yet
Ensemble Genesis Probabilities
GEFS and ECENS continue to show scattered low-pressure signals in the northern Gulf, especially near SE Louisiana and the ALAMIS corridor.
However, no strong clustering or pressure drops below 1003 mb are present—suggesting weak, rain-heavy systems, not hurricanes.
Moisture accumulation remains elevated, but without vertical stacking or closed lows, it’s more flash flood risk than wind threat.
What This Means for Houston
The atmosphere is primed for rain, but not for rapid intensification.
The MJO isn’t amplifying convection in the Gulf yet, and wind shear remains hostile, especially over the Caribbean and western Gulf.
Houston’s biggest concern remains flood fatigue, not a named storm—though vigilance is still warranted if the swirl persists.
Yeah - the dehumidifier is working overtime. It's extra gooey here.
I'm just hoping that a front doesn't stall and become another convection-focused event next week & the week after.
Hopefully such a convective event will not evolve into another Texas-like storm and make 20-25-inch totals and mass flooding. We certainly don't need any more mass flood events, now New Mexico has some flood issues; North Carolina had a bigger blow than expected from Chantal, and even Chicago had one of its' most intense thunderstorms rain-wise in a long while with a half-foot in spots over a couple of hours.
I saw those flooding events, it seems like so many are occuring right now. I've lived in Central Tx, seen extensive damage before - just foundations & pipes where houses once were - and creeks becoming torrents, flooding my grandma's house. Salvaging what we could for her.
Floods are heartbreaking. Especially the recent ones.
All the latent heat and amped up atmosphere. I know it's not going to 'get better'. The physics of the Holocene were delicate and extraordinarily rare. We blew it.
We're all going to have to radically adapt. And finally understand that the atmosphere is one giant system, what affects one area on the planet affects another.
Hi, Michael---
I’ve been watching the models dance around 93L’s remnants, and while it’s still mostly a blob, I’m noticing the ensemble spread beginning to tilt westward again....to Houston.
The 40% NHC odds grabbed my attention—not so much for imminent formation, but because they suggest the atmosphere is at least tolerating this system’s persistence. With shear relaxing slightly and SSTs firmly in the upper 80s, I’m wondering whether we’ll see pressures dip sub-1008 mb in the next couple runs. That could give it just enough identity to impact areas beyond nuisance rain.
I know it’s early, and I’m not sounding the alarm—but given the pattern similarity to last week’s Gulf slider, I’ll be keeping an eye on the Thursday-to-Saturday window. Appreciate your clarity and the effort to separate curiosity from concern.
I’m not saying we’re channeling Alicia here in Southeast Texas—just watching for her cousin’s ghost.
This reminds me of when I did airfield management in the Air Force. We had to be prepared to get a jump on any ice or snow forecasted to keep the airfield open for operations, and we relied heavily on the collocated base weather office to give use both possible and probable forecasts. One winter morning I went by the wx office to get the daily brief- no snow forecasted. I spent about an hour inspecting the airfield, checking on construction and dispersing wildlife (birds). I kept noticing increasingly dark clouds on the horizon, inquired once over the radio-no change in the forecast. Then it started snowing. I called it in, and went back to the office, stopping by the weather shop. The weather observer came in and informed the forecaster it was snowing, who remarked "Gee, I better amend my forecast..."