Debby to bring “widespread severe, potentially historic, flash and urban flooding” to the southeast coast this week, according to the National Weather Service
We've long judged hurricanes' potential for damage by their projected wind speeds at landfall. I think we're slowly coming to the realization that hurricanes are primarily hydrological events. Even discounting wind-driven storms surge, much of the hurricane damage is flooding. They are in essence a rotating atmospheric river. I've long thought we ought to grade atmospheric rivers by their precipitable water potential.
Too much is put into the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, which only takes into account the current wind speed and category. Flood damage can be worse than even a Cat 1 on the wind scale. Also, localized tornadoes within the rain bands can cause wind damage greater than what the category is generally. You could have an EF-3 tornado in a Cat 1 hurricane, for example. Hurricanes of course, are low pressure systems. They are very deep lows, but are warm-core lows. Since they are warm-core, you could arge that they indeed are a rotating kind of atmospheric "river" of sorts. They are not a "river" in the sense of a long train of moisture like the Pineapple Express. They are a circular storm event. Hurricanes evolve from a simple thunderstorm cluster. In essence, they are a giant "air-mass thunderstorm" a rotating one. They are a storm you need to highly respect, just as you would have respect for lightning.
I should mention that the Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) is the standard measure of precipitable water of atmospheric rivers. But it hasn't grabbed the public's attention since it is a continuous set of solutions to an equation. If for drama's sake the AMS would create the familiar Category system with arbitrary Cat1 through Cat6 designations, the public would perk up when the local TV weatherman announced, "We have a Cat. 5 atmospheric river making landfall Tuesday!"
Down here in south Florida the amount of rain or storm surge is more important than the wind. I'm lucky to be at higher elevation than most of south Florida and even though only 1/4 mile from a river that empties into Charlotte Harbor and the Gulf, I've never had flooding from rain or surge. Right now Debby is parallel to me and we just started to get heavy rain. Most of the forward side bands hit farther east or out to sea, Just had a tornado watch from the county about an hour ago.
I'm originally from Michigan and have experienced both tornadoes and hurricanes, Irma and Ian as direct hits with Ian's eyewall going right overhead. I'll take Ian any day over a tornado. At least with a hurricane you have plenty of warning.
As a forecast user, I couldn’t agree more. I remember my mom in regard to Katrina bearing down on MS coast saying, “the winds are going down! Stop looking at the internet.” She later said “it must have been a tsunami.”
My cousin wanted to move to New Orleans until Katrina hit there and then the subsequent hurricanes that hit down in that area of the Gulf. Storm surge is kind of like a long lasting tsunami. I'm at 10 feet elevation which doesn't sound like much but I have barrier islands and a peninsula blocking the Gulf from sending much this way so haven't had to deal with it. Also keeps the flooding away with 8 or more inches of rainfall. Oddly during Ian the what storm surge made it through didn't hurt Punta Gorda but went 20+ miles up the Peace River and flooded Arcadia badly.
I remember the storm chaser coverage of Ian and the eye wall; you could hear the loud thunder over the wind and rain!! Do you remember the thunder and seeing the lightning? Ian was up there along with Michael for being one of the most intense, notable storms in the weather annals for all time, LOL!!
I was going to stay home for Ian when it was supposed to pass us and hit farther north like I had for several others but then I saw Jim Cantore downtown when he had been in Clearwater and thought 'Oh sh-t! it's changed course'. This was the day before the storm. I packed up the car that night and the next morning thought about staying anyway as the house had come through Charley with some damage but survived then remembered that Ian was Charley on steroids and left town about 10:30 am just as the storm was getting close. I went up to Arcadia, across and down the side of Lake O to Clewiston where I spent the storm sitting in the car in the Walmart parking lot (they closed the store as the parking lot was filled with RVs, cars and pickup trucks with refugees like me). There was one toilet available at a gas station on the corner and it closed at 10 pm.
Once the winds died I decided at around 3 am to go home and see if I still had a house left. From LaBelle on there were no lights at all so had to slow down to find I-75 and later my exit off it. Saw about 4 or 5 emergency vehicles heading the other way but no one else. It was really an eerie drive.
Got back about 5:30 am and found about 4 inches of water on the streets in my park. A tree across the road in front of me, debris blocking the road to the right, a van sitting at the corner with the doors open but no one there so figured I better wait until daylight. Once the sun was up the water was gone from the road so started to head home, about 1/4 mile. Had to keep stopping to toss debris out of the road, drove around the downed tree (yeah, cut across the clubhouse lawn) and soon came to some housing debris and larger tree limbs. Fortunately some first responders who had been checking on those who stayed came along then and got the big pieces I couldn't out of the road. It took over an hour to go that short distance home. Was glad to find when I opened the door that the house was dry inside.
One of my neighbors got a head injury (that was why the van was abandoned) but died because emergency vehicles couldn't get to him in time. Most of the others who had stayed and had been there for Charley said they wouldn't stay ever again for a storm of that magnitude. It took so long to pass by while Charley ran through. They weren't sure they were going to survive. Glad I chose to go around the storm instead.
After seeing a vid on YouTube of the storm chasers who spent the storm in a parking garage downtown with Jim Cantore and his team I kind of wish I'd stayed with them. I could have gotten out of the car at times. Instead I spent most of 23 hours sitting in the driver's seat and my already damaged back had me nearly crying. It took six months to ger recertified for approval of a Radiofrequency Rhizotomy to get rid of that pain.
With the way hurricanes are now tending to slow down and expand in size I don't think I will be sticking around for anything more than a Cat 1, maybe 2.
We've long judged hurricanes' potential for damage by their projected wind speeds at landfall. I think we're slowly coming to the realization that hurricanes are primarily hydrological events. Even discounting wind-driven storms surge, much of the hurricane damage is flooding. They are in essence a rotating atmospheric river. I've long thought we ought to grade atmospheric rivers by their precipitable water potential.
Too much is put into the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, which only takes into account the current wind speed and category. Flood damage can be worse than even a Cat 1 on the wind scale. Also, localized tornadoes within the rain bands can cause wind damage greater than what the category is generally. You could have an EF-3 tornado in a Cat 1 hurricane, for example. Hurricanes of course, are low pressure systems. They are very deep lows, but are warm-core lows. Since they are warm-core, you could arge that they indeed are a rotating kind of atmospheric "river" of sorts. They are not a "river" in the sense of a long train of moisture like the Pineapple Express. They are a circular storm event. Hurricanes evolve from a simple thunderstorm cluster. In essence, they are a giant "air-mass thunderstorm" a rotating one. They are a storm you need to highly respect, just as you would have respect for lightning.
I should mention that the Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) is the standard measure of precipitable water of atmospheric rivers. But it hasn't grabbed the public's attention since it is a continuous set of solutions to an equation. If for drama's sake the AMS would create the familiar Category system with arbitrary Cat1 through Cat6 designations, the public would perk up when the local TV weatherman announced, "We have a Cat. 5 atmospheric river making landfall Tuesday!"
Down here in south Florida the amount of rain or storm surge is more important than the wind. I'm lucky to be at higher elevation than most of south Florida and even though only 1/4 mile from a river that empties into Charlotte Harbor and the Gulf, I've never had flooding from rain or surge. Right now Debby is parallel to me and we just started to get heavy rain. Most of the forward side bands hit farther east or out to sea, Just had a tornado watch from the county about an hour ago.
Being from Oklahoma, tornadoes scare me more than anything!
I'm originally from Michigan and have experienced both tornadoes and hurricanes, Irma and Ian as direct hits with Ian's eyewall going right overhead. I'll take Ian any day over a tornado. At least with a hurricane you have plenty of warning.
And no 300 mph winds!
As a forecast user, I couldn’t agree more. I remember my mom in regard to Katrina bearing down on MS coast saying, “the winds are going down! Stop looking at the internet.” She later said “it must have been a tsunami.”
My cousin wanted to move to New Orleans until Katrina hit there and then the subsequent hurricanes that hit down in that area of the Gulf. Storm surge is kind of like a long lasting tsunami. I'm at 10 feet elevation which doesn't sound like much but I have barrier islands and a peninsula blocking the Gulf from sending much this way so haven't had to deal with it. Also keeps the flooding away with 8 or more inches of rainfall. Oddly during Ian the what storm surge made it through didn't hurt Punta Gorda but went 20+ miles up the Peace River and flooded Arcadia badly.
I remember the storm chaser coverage of Ian and the eye wall; you could hear the loud thunder over the wind and rain!! Do you remember the thunder and seeing the lightning? Ian was up there along with Michael for being one of the most intense, notable storms in the weather annals for all time, LOL!!
I was going to stay home for Ian when it was supposed to pass us and hit farther north like I had for several others but then I saw Jim Cantore downtown when he had been in Clearwater and thought 'Oh sh-t! it's changed course'. This was the day before the storm. I packed up the car that night and the next morning thought about staying anyway as the house had come through Charley with some damage but survived then remembered that Ian was Charley on steroids and left town about 10:30 am just as the storm was getting close. I went up to Arcadia, across and down the side of Lake O to Clewiston where I spent the storm sitting in the car in the Walmart parking lot (they closed the store as the parking lot was filled with RVs, cars and pickup trucks with refugees like me). There was one toilet available at a gas station on the corner and it closed at 10 pm.
Once the winds died I decided at around 3 am to go home and see if I still had a house left. From LaBelle on there were no lights at all so had to slow down to find I-75 and later my exit off it. Saw about 4 or 5 emergency vehicles heading the other way but no one else. It was really an eerie drive.
Got back about 5:30 am and found about 4 inches of water on the streets in my park. A tree across the road in front of me, debris blocking the road to the right, a van sitting at the corner with the doors open but no one there so figured I better wait until daylight. Once the sun was up the water was gone from the road so started to head home, about 1/4 mile. Had to keep stopping to toss debris out of the road, drove around the downed tree (yeah, cut across the clubhouse lawn) and soon came to some housing debris and larger tree limbs. Fortunately some first responders who had been checking on those who stayed came along then and got the big pieces I couldn't out of the road. It took over an hour to go that short distance home. Was glad to find when I opened the door that the house was dry inside.
One of my neighbors got a head injury (that was why the van was abandoned) but died because emergency vehicles couldn't get to him in time. Most of the others who had stayed and had been there for Charley said they wouldn't stay ever again for a storm of that magnitude. It took so long to pass by while Charley ran through. They weren't sure they were going to survive. Glad I chose to go around the storm instead.
After seeing a vid on YouTube of the storm chasers who spent the storm in a parking garage downtown with Jim Cantore and his team I kind of wish I'd stayed with them. I could have gotten out of the car at times. Instead I spent most of 23 hours sitting in the driver's seat and my already damaged back had me nearly crying. It took six months to ger recertified for approval of a Radiofrequency Rhizotomy to get rid of that pain.
With the way hurricanes are now tending to slow down and expand in size I don't think I will be sticking around for anything more than a Cat 1, maybe 2.
Is Texas being considered the most likely landfall area?