Another Week, Another Front, and No Hurricanes in Sight

We're taking in the tropical welcome mat for now

Like the dutiful ants in the children’s nursery rhyme, the fronts go marching one by one, hurrah, hurrah. Although the anticlimactic “cold” front that finally passed through South Florida this weekend didn’t bring the crisp fall air we’d hoped, it did do its job of ratcheting up hostile upper-level winds around the Florida peninsula. Another front sweeping down through the southeast this week will reinforce the piercing upper-level winds around the hurricane states, shutting down any potential for nearby tropical mischief in the week ahead.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season is in the process of sunsetting. Historically, we’ve typically run through about 90 percent of tropical activity by October 17th and, as we’ve discussed in previous newsletters, the regular passage of fall fronts through South Florida gives us a measure of comfort that the season is winding down for us in Florida.

To add to the good news, the global configuration of upper winds known as the Madden Julian Oscillation or MJO is currently positioned to favor storminess in the Pacific, not the Atlantic. This should keep the Atlantic quiet overall for the next week or two.

History says the Atlantic will probably see another storm before the season officially closes at the end of November, but the progression of fronts for now means we’ve temporarily taken in the tropical welcome mat.