Julia Stays Intact Across Central America, May Spawn New Systems

Strong wind shear will protect the U.S. from any tropical threats for the foreseeable future

Julia, which made landfall early Sunday on the Caribbean side of Nicaragua, scooted quickly across the rugged terrain of Central America yesterday, emerging over Pacific waters by Sunday night largely intact as a tropical storm, becoming only the third Atlantic-Pacific crossover storm to keep its name on both sides since the tropical cyclone naming rule took effect in 2000.

Julia has unleashed torrential rain through portions of Central America, from Costa Rica in the south to Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala in the north, causing widespread, extensive flooding and damage across the region.

Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman

#Julia dumped 406 mm (almost 16 inches) of rain in just 6 hours in Liberia, Costa Rica Sunday. No wonder the rainfall #flooding we've seen in parts of Central America.

The heaviest rainfall today is focused on El Salvador and southern Guatemala as Julia rides the Pacific coastline.

While the defined center of Julia is forecast to unravel today, its broader area of spin will rotate westward, and the northern and southern lobes may break off into two new systems – one in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico and another in the eastern Pacific. These potential children of Julia are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for a low chance of development this week.

As for the area in the southern Gulf and Bay of Campeche, it’ll stay far enough south and west that it won’t be a concern for the U.S. Blistering wind shear consuming the central and northern Gulf won’t allow anything of an organized nature to survive in our neck of the woods for the foreseeable future.

Wind shear departure from average. Warmer colors indicate much stronger than average wind shear through the central and northern Gulf this week. Credit: TropicalTidbits.com.

The big weather story for us in South Florida this week won’t be from the tropics. We’ll be watching for the possibility of our first big fall cold front of the season. While a clean passage ushering in the end of wet season isn’t a lock just yet, it’s looking more likely we’ll finally be able to open the patio doors and enjoy some seasonally pleasant air for the weekend.