Another Unusually Quiet Start to September Across the Atlantic

For the second year in a row, no active Atlantic systems to start September

Tuesday morning sunrise satellite loop across the tropical Atlantic. Credit: TropicalTidbits.com

Atlantic hurricane season activity traditionally peaks on or around September 10^th, the date around which you’re most likely to find an active named storm. In the modern recordbooks (since 1966) only the 1968 and 1992 hurricane seasons went the two-week stretch leading into the peak without any active named storms in the Atlantic.

Now we can add 2025 to that list.

Both the 1968 and 1992 hurricane season ultimately ended with below average activity, although it was little consolation for South Florida in 1992 in the weeks following Andrew, the only major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane to form that season.

We’ve certainly seen recent hurricane seasons with quiet periods around the peak but with unusually busy back halves. I wrote about the unusual mid-season lull ad nauseum in 2024, which ended with a firehose of activity, including Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which collectively caused over $100 billion in damage and nearly 300 fatalities in the U.S. 2022 felt strangely quiet around the seasonal peak as well, but ended with Hurricane Ian, one of the deadliest and most destructive hurricanes to hit to the mainland U.S. in a decade.

Just over 50% of tropical activity typically comes after September 9^th, with about 90% of that remaining activity happening in the 7 weeks between now and the end of October. As I’ve written about extensively in years past, October is also the month South Florida is most at risk for a hurricane strike, so be sure to check back a little more frequently on the forecast in the coming weeks.

Quiet for now

Forecast models continue to advertise no development threats at least through this weekend.

By early next week, models do show the possibility of gradual development with a tropical wave moving west into the eastern Atlantic from Africa. The AI camp of models, including the European AI/Integrated Forecasting System (AIFS) and Google DeepMind, are keener on development than the conventional physics-based forecast models like the European and American GFS.

Forecast low-pressure tracks through next Thursday, September 18^th from Google DeepMind’s hurricane-specific machine learning-based modeling system. The AI-based forecast system shows the possibility for development with a tropical wave moving off African early next week. Credit: Weathernerds.org

Forecast low-pressure tracks through next Thursday, September 18^th from the European model’s AI-based ensemble system (AI/Integrated Forecast System or AIFS). Like Google’s DeepMind the European model’s AI-based system is also advertising the possibility of development over the eastern or central Atlantic next week. Credit: Weathermodels.com

This system is still more than a week out and the development signal isn’t especially strong at this stage, but we’ll follow the trends in the days ahead.