In the weeks after nearly 1400 people perished in New Orleans during the levee breaches of Hurricane Katrina, nearly all the information on what caused the catastrophe was wrong. Blame doesn't belong to the storm, city geography or local officials. It belongs to the US Army Corps of Engineers for their poor design and construction of the levees. Bottom line, don't rush to judgement on who is to blame. It could take months, even years to determine.
Michael, things might be calm for the next few days, but ECENS have 6 members developing a tropical cyclone and pointing it toward Houston; another potential tragedy in the making. Yr. thoughts?
How many days out are we talking? I don't knowe what ECENS is, but it's gotta be something to do with the EURO model. The closer we get in the number of days, the more accurate. I suppose the GFS has this, which I wouldn't be surprised, but the next model run the ECENS, maybe the system might be gone.
Try hour 264. You’ll find it on www.weathernerds.org. And yes, the GFS does have this on the 06Z run. 00z ECENS @ hour 264: Check for increased clustering and deeper lows
GEFS 12z cycle: See if more members pivot toward Texas coast
Personally, I don't like hurricanes for their destructive power, but they are interesting as far as live storm coverage goes, on TV LIVE and LIVE on the web. Today's satellites also make hurricanes look more interesting than they ever did decades ago!!
This one's bothering our local mets here in Houston. It seems to be on the same development path as notorious Alicia (1983). Please look at the 12Z Euro run at hour 360 and see if you don't agree that Big Joe Bastardi might be saying "Houston, you've got a problem" by this time next week!
I don't necessarily trust what a model says 360 hours, or 2 weeks, into the future. I wouldn't be losing sleep over that right now. There are MANY days to go, and who knows if it will still show a storm a couple days from now? Until something gets within a 7- or 5-day time frame, especially the 7-day, I wouldn't be having this conversation unless the models actually get within that time frame. If they do, we can start having that conversation about a potential storm a week from that point in time.
When a sophisticated system and it's accompanying technologies and research have been painstakingly developed and built over decades, it's sheer madness to disassemble it, particularly when it is highly crucial to public safety, and particularly when the cuts are made with a broadaxe and not a scalpel. What is the endgame here...a Project 2025 christo-fascist state where all science that implies God would allow man-made global warming must be crushed? Or simply a billionaire-class takeover of government services - by crippling them so the populace no longer trusts them and relents to their takeover - for conversion to a for-profit monopoly? In any case, this is a treasonous abandonment of independence and freedom, of knowledge and progress, of democracy itself...and is an existential threat to America and a major step toward the fascism Trump desires.
In the weeks after nearly 1400 people perished in New Orleans during the levee breaches of Hurricane Katrina, nearly all the information on what caused the catastrophe was wrong. Blame doesn't belong to the storm, city geography or local officials. It belongs to the US Army Corps of Engineers for their poor design and construction of the levees. Bottom line, don't rush to judgement on who is to blame. It could take months, even years to determine.
Michael, things might be calm for the next few days, but ECENS have 6 members developing a tropical cyclone and pointing it toward Houston; another potential tragedy in the making. Yr. thoughts?
How many days out are we talking? I don't knowe what ECENS is, but it's gotta be something to do with the EURO model. The closer we get in the number of days, the more accurate. I suppose the GFS has this, which I wouldn't be surprised, but the next model run the ECENS, maybe the system might be gone.
Try hour 264. You’ll find it on www.weathernerds.org. And yes, the GFS does have this on the 06Z run. 00z ECENS @ hour 264: Check for increased clustering and deeper lows
GEFS 12z cycle: See if more members pivot toward Texas coast
GFS @ hour 276–288: Track pressure drop, banding structure, and vorticity
Satellite loop: Follow tropical wave near Yucatán for northward drift
Personally, I don't like hurricanes for their destructive power, but they are interesting as far as live storm coverage goes, on TV LIVE and LIVE on the web. Today's satellites also make hurricanes look more interesting than they ever did decades ago!!
This one's bothering our local mets here in Houston. It seems to be on the same development path as notorious Alicia (1983). Please look at the 12Z Euro run at hour 360 and see if you don't agree that Big Joe Bastardi might be saying "Houston, you've got a problem" by this time next week!
I don't necessarily trust what a model says 360 hours, or 2 weeks, into the future. I wouldn't be losing sleep over that right now. There are MANY days to go, and who knows if it will still show a storm a couple days from now? Until something gets within a 7- or 5-day time frame, especially the 7-day, I wouldn't be having this conversation unless the models actually get within that time frame. If they do, we can start having that conversation about a potential storm a week from that point in time.
When a sophisticated system and it's accompanying technologies and research have been painstakingly developed and built over decades, it's sheer madness to disassemble it, particularly when it is highly crucial to public safety, and particularly when the cuts are made with a broadaxe and not a scalpel. What is the endgame here...a Project 2025 christo-fascist state where all science that implies God would allow man-made global warming must be crushed? Or simply a billionaire-class takeover of government services - by crippling them so the populace no longer trusts them and relents to their takeover - for conversion to a for-profit monopoly? In any case, this is a treasonous abandonment of independence and freedom, of knowledge and progress, of democracy itself...and is an existential threat to America and a major step toward the fascism Trump desires.