Well crap, that one in the Caribbean is heading north but some of the tracks worry me a bit as they head near me but then Ian was supposed to go farther north and did a bit of a turn. On top of that the one from Africa looks like it might be heading this way. Oh well, nothing to do but keep an eye on them.
At this time I am not worried about the African one. I take it one storm at a time. Let's worry about THIS one, first. There likely will be periods of rain, heavy at times, late this week through at least early Friday with strong southerly winds, very warm & humid. There may be frequent lightning at times and severe thunderstorm warnings. A tornado or two could be possible. Damaging straight line winds and floods will be the main severe modes I think. Expect very choppy rough seas. It likely will be in the low to mid-80s and if the sun is out between rain bands, that can intensify some of those bands in daytime, so be prepared for those bands. If a band sits over your house for even one or 2 hours, a lot of rain could fall in a very short time. That can lead to flash flooding and even a scattered flash flood emergency or two. Yes, even the outer bands can be bad well away from the eye of whatever storm does develop!! We will see how this plays out during the week.
I worry more about tornadoes off the sides of these storms as I always seem to be on the 'dirty' side. Where I am flooding is not much of a concern as although I am in the orange area and only 1/4 mile from the Peace River, we have never had flooding even during a Cat 4 hurricane like Ian. I am at about 10 feet elevation. Not all that much but better than a lot of south Florida and we also have the barrier islands and a peninsula blocking the worst of storm surge. Sadly storm surge did go 20+ miles up the river and flood Arcadia but we had about 4 inches on the road when I got home around 5 am the morning after and it was mostly gone by sunrise.
Yeah, but the Euro hasn't done well this year with tropical entities. I think the GFS has done better, and I think it handled Beryl and Debby fairly well. What about the European AI? We only get access to temperature guidance, not the forecast model map, so I couldn't tell you how the AI model sees it. Also, if indeed the GFS is correct, this may or may not be another Michael and hit the Panama City area and that could include Mexico Beach, too.
Well crap, that one in the Caribbean is heading north but some of the tracks worry me a bit as they head near me but then Ian was supposed to go farther north and did a bit of a turn. On top of that the one from Africa looks like it might be heading this way. Oh well, nothing to do but keep an eye on them.
At this time I am not worried about the African one. I take it one storm at a time. Let's worry about THIS one, first. There likely will be periods of rain, heavy at times, late this week through at least early Friday with strong southerly winds, very warm & humid. There may be frequent lightning at times and severe thunderstorm warnings. A tornado or two could be possible. Damaging straight line winds and floods will be the main severe modes I think. Expect very choppy rough seas. It likely will be in the low to mid-80s and if the sun is out between rain bands, that can intensify some of those bands in daytime, so be prepared for those bands. If a band sits over your house for even one or 2 hours, a lot of rain could fall in a very short time. That can lead to flash flooding and even a scattered flash flood emergency or two. Yes, even the outer bands can be bad well away from the eye of whatever storm does develop!! We will see how this plays out during the week.
I worry more about tornadoes off the sides of these storms as I always seem to be on the 'dirty' side. Where I am flooding is not much of a concern as although I am in the orange area and only 1/4 mile from the Peace River, we have never had flooding even during a Cat 4 hurricane like Ian. I am at about 10 feet elevation. Not all that much but better than a lot of south Florida and we also have the barrier islands and a peninsula blocking the worst of storm surge. Sadly storm surge did go 20+ miles up the river and flood Arcadia but we had about 4 inches on the road when I got home around 5 am the morning after and it was mostly gone by sunrise.
The ECMWF has a much better outcome than the GFS 💓
Yeah, but the Euro hasn't done well this year with tropical entities. I think the GFS has done better, and I think it handled Beryl and Debby fairly well. What about the European AI? We only get access to temperature guidance, not the forecast model map, so I couldn't tell you how the AI model sees it. Also, if indeed the GFS is correct, this may or may not be another Michael and hit the Panama City area and that could include Mexico Beach, too.
Yeah. You're very, very good at this stuff.
Thank you so much, Cat!! I am glad you appreciate my comments!!