Rafael Briefly Reintensifies to a Major Hurricane Over the Gulf but No Direct Threat to Land

Dangerous swell and life-threatening rip currents expected along the Gulf Coast into early next week as Rafael loops over the central Gulf

Friday morning satellite of Hurricane Rafael in the central Gulf of Mexico and a tropical disturbance being monitored north of the Greater Antilles. Credit: Colorado State University/CIRA

Rafael restrengthened overnight to a major Category 3 hurricane over the central Gulf of Mexico, becoming the farthest west a Category 3 or stronger hurricane has been observed during the month of November.

The unusually strong late-season hurricane is only the 8^th major hurricane to form anywhere in the Atlantic basin during the month of November in the satellite era (since 1966) and only the 2^nd major November hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico.

A major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico is typically bad news for head of hurricane alley – with no safe escape route for hurricanes inside the land-bordered body of water – but Rafael will get stuck between steering currents and meander aimlessly over the open Gulf, weakening early next week before posing any significant threat to land.

Though Rafael isn’t expected to directly threaten land as a hurricane, the coastline from Texas to the Florida panhandle will feel its influence from large swell reaching the Gulf Coast this weekend into early next week. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are expected along area beaches, with some minor coastal flooding in low-lying areas.

Record-breaking heat in these areas for the second week of November may entice many to take to the beach this weekend for relief, but the hazardous (and much cooler) waters will make Gulf Coast beaches most enjoyable out of the water.

As we’ve detailed in previous newsletters, several factors will quickly topple Rafael next week, especially if it tries to move toward the U.S. A cold front descending into the Deep South and Florida next week could siphon off some residual tropical air from Rafael and increase rainfall ahead of the front across parts of south Louisiana and Mississippi by late Saturday and Sunday into Veterans Day.

Otherwise Rafael should lose its thunderstorms and weaken into a harmless swirl of low-level clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico by early to middle of next week.

No significant development threats behind Rafael

We continue to monitor a disturbance bringing disorganized storminess from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to Haiti and the Dominican Republic today.

It’ll be moving toward Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida for the weekend, helping to increase rain chances across South Florida for Sunday into Monday. Development odds remain low and conditions ahead don’t favor organization, especially closer to Florida.

Long-range models do show perhaps another system trying to spin up over the western Caribbean in another week or so. For now, it’s nothing to worry about for us stateside, especially given how late into the season we are.

As an aside, buyer beware when consulting the long-range American GFS model forecasts which continue to advertise scarycanes coming from the Caribbean. The long-range track record for the GFS this season in the southwestern Caribbean has been abysmal.

Verification for tropical cyclone formation from the GFS model this season. The X’s indicate locations the model forecast development over a 7-day period where none actually occurred. The circles show where the model was most accurate in predicting tropical formation. The GFS has consistently overpredicted development odds this season, but has an egregiously bad bias in the southwestern Caribbean, where it often predicts formation where none occurs. Credit: Dan Halperin/Florida State University

Other models like the European model have been far less flagrant with false alarms in the longer-range, especially in this part of the Atlantic.

Verification for tropical cyclone formation from the European model this season. The X’s indicate locations the model forecast development over a 7-day period where none actually occurred. The circles show where the model was most accurate in predicting tropical formation. Compared to the GFS, the European model is light on false alarms and fairly reliable when forecasting tropical development. The model this season may have shown a slight underbias in predicting formation, but has been much more credible than the American GFS. Credit: Dan Halperin/Florida State University