Quiet Holiday Week in Store for the Tropical Atlantic

After a busy June, the Atlantic is out to an early July recess

After a very busy start to the hurricane season in the Atlantic – the most active through June since 2012 and third most active June this century – the tropics will be taking a summer vacation to start the month of July.

Hostile wind shear across the deep tropics that stayed uncharacteristically weak throughout June is forecast to ramp up in the coming weeks, with noticeably strong upper-level winds laying claim to the main development region of the Atlantic.

Wind shear departure from average for June 2023. Cooler colors indicates areas of weaker-than-average wind shear, most notably in the deep tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean, where Tropical Storms Bret and Cindy formed.

Forecast wind shear departure from average for Friday, June 8^th to Wednesday, June 13^th from the European ensemble forecast modeling system. Warmer colors indicate above-average deep-layer vertical wind shear. Credit: TropicalTidbits.com.

Though still somewhat paltry for late June and early July, we’re finally seeing some push of Saharan dust across the Atlantic. Another outbreak is anticipated by mid-to-late week and these dry air intrusions should reinforce the benign weather across the tropical Atlantic expected for the holiday week.

Forecast dust from Monday, July 3^rd through Saturday, July 8^th showing another dust plume pushing off Africa by mid-to-late week. Credit: Weatherbell.com.

As we discussed in last Friday’s newsletter, the Atlantic looks to stay mostly sluggish until mid to late July when conditions may once again favor storm activity.

Until then, we’ll be following the evolution of upper-level winds and attendant wind shear over the Caribbean and over the waters east of the islands to see if a more typical El Niño pattern – a pattern that usually deters Atlantic storm activity – can take shape as we close in on August, the start of the primetime part of the hurricane season.