Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Moving Inland, Tracking New Atlantic Disturbances
Tropics heating up headed into the traditionally busiest stretch of the hurricane season
A robust tropical disturbance in the western Gulf – designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Four yesterday afternoon by the National Hurricane Center – will be moving inland over parts of northern Mexico and Deep South Texas this weekend while we track a new disturbance moving into the eastern Atlantic for next week.
Although Hurricane Hunters flying into Potential Tropical Cyclone Four yesterday afternoon were unable to “close off” a center of circulation – finding winds turning sharply but not yet closing the loop – they did find gusty winds to tropical storm strength (greater than 38 mph) within the developing storminess. Without a defined circulation center, however, NHC was unable to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Danielle. With the still-developing storm only a day out from reaching land, NHC opted instead to begin advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four to issue tropical storm warnings for portions of northeastern Mexico and South Texas in advance of the system’s likely impacts.
On satellite this morning, the Potential Tropical Cyclone appears largely unchanged in the western Gulf as it closes to within about 175 miles of the U.S./Mexico border.
Air Force Hurricane Hunters once again took off from Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi, shortly after sunrise today to make the 2-hour trip south to investigate. While the mission is still ongoing, they’ve yet (as of 9 AM ET) to find the defined circulation necessary to upgrade the Potential Tropical Cyclone to Danielle.
Regardless of the precise designation, the system is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to parts of northern Mexico and extreme south Texas – from Brownsville to South Padre Island – beginning this afternoon into this evening. In general, rainfall totals will be modest, but localized flash flooding could be an issue into tomorrow as the system moved farther inland.
Otherwise in the Atlantic, as advertised in newsletters earlier this week, we’ll be turning our attention to the eastern Atlantic in the days ahead where we’ll be watching two disturbances (which, for scientific accuracy, we’ll call Thing 1 and Thing 2).
The first system (Thing 1) moving off Africa today is being tagged by NHC for possible development as it moves westward next week. Models are lukewarm on its potential, as a tongue of dry and stable air nearby may stifle development. Nevertheless, with an initial westward course, we’ll keep an eye to it.
The second system (Thing 2) will be moving off Africa by Tuesday or Wednesday and may have higher long-term prospects, as it will be farther south and away from the drier and more stable air of the subtropics.
There will be plenty of time to follow these new disturbances in the coming weeks, but the rumbles of the active part of the hurricane season are echoing through the Atlantic.
😕 Its misery this time of the year.
"Thing 2" is not even over the water yet. It is just a wave of thunderstorms, basically air-mass thunderstorms that make the big summer tropical rains in the jungles of Africa. It's a rainy day for those people; probably plenty of lightning with it. If indeed, "Thing 2" goes south of the dry stable ait, it may develop as long as it does not get TOO far south. The dry, stable air has been a killer this year. It's possible that wind shear may be causing PTC 4 to struggle and not close off a defined center. Its' winds are only 35 mph anyway, so it couldn't be Danielle right now, even if the Hurricane Hunter does find 40 mph sustained winds in a certain sector of the storm, unless a center did close off. I am not sure it will make 40 mph anyway. Regardless of if it got a name or not, the weather is going to be acting like a named storm; it will be that crappy of an afternoon for folks at South Padre Island, so don't go planning on swimming at the beach, or a barbecue cookout today; wait till tomorrow. Rain and thunderstorms today, tonight, heavy at times. Improving tomorrow.