Odds Increasing Disturbance Will Develop as It Nears the Islands Next Week
Interests in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor forecasts closely this weekend
A tropical disturbance we first alerted you to in this newsletter on Tuesday is poised to slowly develop as it nears the easternmost Caribbean islands next Monday into Tuesday. It shouldn’t be too surprising given the time of year, but our reliable forecast models are quite bullish on its development prospects by mid-week as it likely affects the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and perhaps the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
All interests in the Leeward Islands of the eastern Caribbean to Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should follow this one closely over the coming days.
By late next week, trends indicate we’ll have a significant tropical system – perhaps a strengthening hurricane – in the western Atlantic, so those in the eastern Bahamas or with travel plans there will want to pay attention to the forecasts next week.
Still too soon to speculate on whether this could be a mainland U.S. menace
As is typically the case for a forecast out a week or longer, there are too many unknowns to say much about whether the system could eventually threaten the mainland U.S. We can, however, say that the steering pattern will support a bend northward by next Thursday as a dip in the jet stream off the Eastern Seaboard tugs at the system while it’s near or north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
As was the case with Debby last week, how much the developing system turns and when it does so will depend on myriad factors, including how organized the system becomes, that remain highly uncertain 6 or 7 days out. Many of the early models suggested Debby would turn east of Florida and it snuck into the Gulf of Mexico, so take any speculation at this stage with healthy skepticism.
In general, we like to see there’s a potential escape route ahead before reaching us here on the mainland, but it’s too soon to know for sure whether it’ll take it. The bottom line for us in South Florida and here stateside is to simply monitor the trends into next week. It’s August, so it’s always a good idea to check in periodically on the tropics.
Debby done as a tropical entity but heavy rains spread into the northern U.S.
Debby lost its tropical characteristics overnight, becoming strung out along an approaching cold front over the Mid-Atlantic. The rich tropical air will continue to bring the threat for significant flooding into the northeast into early tomorrow, with an added risk for a few tornadoes across parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and eastern New York today.
NOAA doubles down on hyperactive hurricane season forecast
On Thursday, NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, issued its final hurricane season outlook going into what’s traditionally the busiest stretch of the hurricane season. Their forecast remained largely unchanged from their last outlook issued on May 23rd and continues to call for an extremely active hurricane season that could rank among the busiest on record.
The forecast calls for at least 13 more named storms this season, with as many as 24 total, and up to 13 hurricanes, including Beryl and Debby from earlier this season. As many as 7 hurricanes could reach Category 3 or stronger.
If these forecasts materialize, it means we still have 85% of hurricane season activity ahead of us.
Would be very happy to see Ernesto just spin itself out to sea & burn up as much ACE energy as possible over the open water 💦
I'm holding out for that option 🎃
Let's see Global Rapid Heating leads to more water vapor transport and also higher ocean temperatures with more shallow coastal water areas from sea level rise driven by melting ice and thermal expansion. More and stronger hurricanes, a concomitant.
On the other hand increasing desertification may lead to more damping dust plumes lasting later into the season.
Prediction: busier hurricane seasons moved a few weeks later into the early autumn