Odds Increasing Disturbance Will Develop as It Nears the Islands Next Week

Interests in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor forecasts closely this weekend

A tropical disturbance we first alerted you to in this newsletter on Tuesday is poised to slowly develop as it nears the easternmost Caribbean islands next Monday into Tuesday. It shouldn’t be too surprising given the time of year, but our reliable forecast models are quite bullish on its development prospects by mid-week as it likely affects the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and perhaps the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Odds of a tropical system (tropical depression or storm) passing within 150-200 miles of a given location from late Monday through Wednesday according to the European model ensemble system. Models are in good agreement with a developing system moving near or over parts of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico early next week. Credit: Weathermodels.com

All interests in the Leeward Islands of the eastern Caribbean to Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should follow this one closely over the coming days.

By late next week, trends indicate we’ll have a significant tropical system – perhaps a strengthening hurricane – in the western Atlantic, so those in the eastern Bahamas or with travel plans there will want to pay attention to the forecasts next week.

Still too soon to speculate on whether this could be a mainland U.S. menace

As is typically the case for a forecast out a week or longer, there are too many unknowns to say much about whether the system could eventually threaten the mainland U.S. We can, however, say that the steering pattern will support a bend northward by next Thursday as a dip in the jet stream off the Eastern Seaboard tugs at the system while it’s near or north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

As was the case with Debby last week, how much the developing system turns and when it does so will depend on myriad factors, including how organized the system becomes, that remain highly uncertain 6 or 7 days out. Many of the early models suggested Debby would turn east of Florida and it snuck into the Gulf of Mexico, so take any speculation at this stage with healthy skepticism.

Low-pressure tracks from the European forecast model ensemble system through next Friday, August 16^th. Though most scenarios indicate a turn east of the mainland U.S. late next week, it’s too soon to rule out a more gradual turn that could bring the system closer. For now, we’ll need to monitor the trends this weekend. Credit: Weathernerds.org

In general, we like to see there’s a potential escape route ahead before reaching us here on the mainland, but it’s too soon to know for sure whether it’ll take it. The bottom line for us in South Florida and here stateside is to simply monitor the trends into next week. It’s August, so it’s always a good idea to check in periodically on the tropics.

Debby done as a tropical entity but heavy rains spread into the northern U.S.

Debby lost its tropical characteristics overnight, becoming strung out along an approaching cold front over the Mid-Atlantic. The rich tropical air will continue to bring the threat for significant flooding into the northeast into early tomorrow, with an added risk for a few tornadoes across parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and eastern New York today.

NOAA doubles down on hyperactive hurricane season forecast

On Thursday, NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, issued its final hurricane season outlook going into what’s traditionally the busiest stretch of the hurricane season. Their forecast remained largely unchanged from their last outlook issued on May 23^rd and continues to call for an extremely active hurricane season that could rank among the busiest on record.

The forecast calls for at least 13 more named storms this season, with as many as 24 total, and up to 13 hurricanes, including Beryl and Debby from earlier this season. As many as 7 hurricanes could reach Category 3 or stronger.

If these forecasts materialize, it means we still have 85% of hurricane season activity ahead of us.