New Area of Interest Off the Carolinas

A frontal low could slowly take on tropical characteristics off the Carolina coast by Friday but development odds remain low

On Monday afternoon the National Hurricane Center outlined its first area of interest of the young hurricane season off the Carolina coast.

The system being monitored is an old frontal zone that spread flooding rains and severe weather across the Florida peninsula and South Florida on Monday.

The disorganized storminess is decidedly non-tropical but dying cold fronts – a holdover from spring months during the start of the hurricane season – can spawn areas of low pressure that take on tropical characteristics if they linger over warm water long enough.

That’s a possibility our forecast models now suggest for the end of the week (Thursday-Friday) as a frontal low forms along or just off the Carolina coast.

The goldilocks window for it to transition into a tropical or subtropical system is notably narrow, which is why development odds are low. The low pressure area will firstly need to stay offshore over or near the warm Gulf Stream waters to have any chance of acquiring tropical characteristics, which, if it happens, wouldn’t be until late Thursday or Friday.

Cyclone Phase Space diagram diagnosing the tropical or non-tropical characteristics of the low pressure area forecast that could form near or just off the Carolina coast on Thursday and Friday. The letter A denotes the time when the low-pressure area is first detected by the European forecast model on Thursday and the letter Z denotes the last point the model sees it before it’s absorbed ahead of an advancing cold front on Saturday. Purely tropical systems live in the upper-right part of the diagram (labeled DEEP WARM CORE). This system, if it were to develop, would be on the edge, a so-called shallow warm core low that might acquire characteristics of a tropical system briefly late Thursday and Friday before getting dismantled by a strong frontal system on Saturday. Credit: Robert Hart/Florida State University

By Saturday, it’ll get quickly swept out to sea ahead of an advancing cold front from the west.

Regardless, significant development isn’t expected and if development occurs over water on Friday, the associated weather will be largely offshore and moving away from the Carolina coast.

Dusty days ahead

A thick coating of Saharan dust has settled in over the Atlantic and through the Caribbean. The dust from Africa is meeting up with hazy skies over the southeast U.S. from the expansive Canadian wildfires.

As we discussed in Monday’s newsletter, the dust-laden skies and harsh upper-level winds should keep the Atlantic quiet into next week. By the end of next week, we’ll turn our attention to the western Caribbean and Gulf as storminess may gradually increase.