Hurricane Season is Here: What We're Watching for Week One and Beyond

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season began Sunday and runs through November 30th

Monday morning satellite (June 2, 2025) showing a hazy plume of Saharan dust stretching across the tropical Atlantic from Africa. Harsh upper-level winds and dusty air will keep the Atlantic quiet for the first full week of the hurricane season. Credit: CIRA/Colorado State University

For newsletter subscribers: Today we resume the daily Talking Tropics newsletter. The goal of the newsletter is to alert you first to any signs of tropical trouble in the Atlantic. On days when the Atlantic is less active, I’ll share unique insight and one-of-a-kind analyses about the developing season you’ll only find here. The newsletter arrives in your inbox promptly each weekday morning (and on weekends, as conditions warrant) throughout hurricane season.

This is the 400^th post of the daily newsletter and the 4^th consecutive hurricane season since its inception. Thank you for your support and growing readership that have made this publication a trusted source of no-hype hurricane forecasts and information. Feel free to search any previous posts available on our extensive Substack archive. -Michael

It’s the opening week of the 183-day Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1^st through November 30^th. The good news right off the bat: no development is expected for the first full week of the season.

The tropics aren’t always so kind. In fact, in 8 of the past 10 hurricane seasons, we’ve seen the first tropical or subtropical storm before the official June 1^st start.

Most typically over the past 50 years, the first named storm has formed around the second week of June. Hurricanes, however, usually take a little longer to surface. Though every season is different, we typically don’t see the first hurricane formation in the Atlantic until August.

The Atlantic hurricane season ramps up quickly deep into the summer and early fall, with August, September, and October being its most active months.

The first name on the list in 2025 is Andrea.

First shot of Atlantic activity comes mid-June

The Atlantic is closed for business for at least the next week to week and a half. Upper-level winds are characteristically harsh through the preferred formation zones this time of year nearer to the U.S. and Central America.

A blanket of thick Saharan dust has also spread through much of the deep tropics, which will also deter organized storminess for the near term.

As we approach the middle part of the month, the upper wind pattern will change as a pulse of storminess – known as the Madden Julian Oscillation or MJO – crosses into the Atlantic from the eastern Pacific.

Areas of rising (blue/cool colors) and sinking (red/warm colors) air straddling the equator (between 15°N and 15°S) by global longitude (x-axis) from early May (top of the chart) through July 3^rd (bottom of the chart). The time vs. longitude chart is known as a Hovmöller diagram and shows the global progression of the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO. Rising air that can favor development (part of the MJO) will move into the Atlantic from the eastern Pacific around the second week of June. We’ll watch for development potential around Central America then, but it’s still to be determined whether storminess collects on the Pacific or Atlantic/Gulf/Caribbean side. Credit: ECMWF

We should see a configuration that’ll favor storminess around Central America by late next week into the weekend of June 14^th.

It’s too early to know if the configuration will favor development on the eastern Pacific or Gulf/Caribbean side of Central America and Mexico, but the changing wind pattern should help to activate the Central American Gyre or CAG, a well-documented pathway for storm development in May and June.

Buyer beware on the American GFS

That said, be wary of the American GFS model forecasts beyond 4 or 5 days in the western Caribbean and Gulf. The model has a known bias in this part of the world and tends to “snowball” scarycanes due to an unrealistic feedback loop of storminess and spin off Venezuela.

You can see this plainly from last hurricane season in the verification numbers for the American GFS, which shows all of the instances the model forecast storm formation where it didn’t actually occur, as denoted by the X’s in the plot below.

Verification of formation prediction from the American GFS for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. X’s indicate where the model missed and the circles show where it got it right. In general, the American GFS model overdoes formation potential, but it struggles especially in the western Caribbean where it has a known bias. Credit: Dan Halperin/Florida State University

In contrast, the European model had a much more consistent track record Atlantic-wide, but especially in the western Caribbean, where more often than not the model accurately forecast formation (indicated by the circles).

Verification of formation prediction from the European model for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. X’s indicate where the model missed and the circles show where it got it right. Overall, the European model was much more consistent and accurate in prediction storm formation compared to the American GFS and doesn’t exhibit the biases and reliability issues of the American GFS. Credit: Dan Halperin/Florida State University

The American GFS may be correctly sniffing out a more conducive upper-wind configuration in a few weeks that could increase storminess in the western Atlantic, but it’s surely overdoing the results. It’s not a credible forecast solution so don’t buy into the hype.

Stay aware, stay informed, and be ready for your one, should this year be the one.