Lots to Watch, but No Immediate Threats
No hurricanes this season through August, the first time since 2013
Waters through the tropical Atlantic this August are a top five warmest in 40 years and a typically storm-abetting La Niña continues to rage across the eastern Pacific, yet the Atlantic has observed its second least active season so far in over 80 years at a time when tropical cyclone detection technology has never been better. Something ain’t right.
Hurricanes happen during hurricane season, regardless of the season. If you believe the early hurricane records, the last Atlantic hurricane season without a hurricane was 1914. Before that it was 1907. But in the modern satellite record (since 1966), the fewest hurricanes forming during a hurricane season were two – both in 2013 and 1982. The latest forming hurricane in the modern record was September 11th which happened in 2002 (Gustav) and 2013 (Humberto). No, we haven’t recorded a hurricane yet in 2022, but yes we probably will – likely more than one, if history is any indication.
Which is why in even a strangely and strikingly sleepy year like 2022, we stay vigilant. A full 75 percent of hurricanes form between August and mid-October, the hurricane part of hurricane season. Today, looking out across the Atlantic, we don’t see any hurricane contenders yet, but we do find a several systems looking to break the now 60-day dry spell of Atlantic tropical cyclones.
The area of greatest interest this week is Invest 91L, a slowly organizing but still-amorphous area of low pressure now located about 600 miles east of the easternmost Caribbean islands. As we’ve discussed in newsletters this week, the road ahead is rocky for this budding system, with a hefty dose of dry air surrounding it and an encounter with increasingly hostile upper-level winds by late weekend. Nevertheless, given the right window, 91L may become a tropical depression or tropical storm sooner rather than later.
The disturbance is crawling through the central Atlantic and is in no hurry for a quick departure. Steering currents aren’t rushing 91L along and will further break down into early next week. This isn’t a bad thing necessarily, as the system, or what becomes of it, will remain to the north of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands and east of the Bahamas through the weekend.
Due to the very slow movement and still-developing center, there’s a wide spread in future track possibilities. The Turks and Caicos as well as the southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor the progress of 91L. For us in South Florida, this one isn’t a concern for now.
The two other areas highlighted by NHC this morning are mere tropical curiosities. A low-pressure area spinning off an old front way up in the middle of the north-Atlantic – designated Invest 93L by NHC – is in the process of transitioning to a warm core cyclone and is on its way to becoming a tropical cyclone. Another system moving just north of the Cabo Verde Islands also shows promise of developing in the coming days. The only threat either poses is stealing the naming rights to Danielle from slow-forming 91L.
It is a race between the 3 entities to see which one becomes Danielle. The first one to become Danielle is a rotten egg!! LOL!!