Keeping an Eye to the Eastern Atlantic

Tropical wave now being tracked by NHC faces some development hurdles ahead

This morning the National Hurricane Center tagged a tropical wave located west of Africa for possible development by later this weekend into early next week as it moves westward through the central Atlantic.

The disturbance – which we first discussed in Monday’s newsletter – will be slow to organize over the coming days. For now it’s tangled up within a long strip of background spin – the monsoon trough – dangling southwestward from Africa into the eastern Atlantic.

While its positioning along the monsoon trough may act as a short-term umbilical cord, helping to maintain the twisting nature of its winds, being embedded within this elongated area of shifting winds also won’t allow the disturbance to find its independent footing needed to develop.

Not until later this weekend will the tropical wave begin to break free of the monsoon trough. At that stage, models do indicate some chance of development, but odds are stacked against significant organization. The two main inhibiting factors will be an abundance of dry air in the middle atmosphere acting to extinguish growing storms and a quick pace westward which would also prevent storminess from coalescing.

As we discussed earlier in the week, however, with waters running as warm as they typically are in September and with upper-level winds in a pattern conducive to development, we’ll want to keep an eye to the disturbance into next week, mainly for any potential impacts to the eastern Caribbean islands as early as next Monday.

Low pressure tracks through next Monday evening (July 24, 2023) from the European forecast model ensemble system showing the disturbance currently near Africa approaching the Lesser Antilles. Sea surface temperatures, also shown, are running well above average for the time of year. Credit: Weathernerds.org.

Closer to South Florida, things look quiet through the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. The only other system we’re monitoring in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Don in the far North Atlantic. Don has tracked in nearly a full circle over the open waters between Bermuda and the Azores and should shed its tropical shell over the weekend as it moves into the colder waters of the North Atlantic graveyard.