Watching the Waves Roll off Africa this Week
Forecast models suggest a more hospitable Atlantic for fledgling disturbances later this week
We’re only a few short weeks away from the traditional start of the Cabo Verde part of the hurricane season – the most active part of the season in August and September when our strongest and longest-lived hurricanes often come together.
Mid to late July is the transition period when the atmosphere lowers its defenses and the deep Atlantic starts to simmer. Of course in 2023, the ocean is already off to a sizzling start, with the main development region averaging 82 degrees Fahrenheit today, the type of warmth not typically seen until deep in September and a full 10 days ahead of the earliest 82-degree reading across the Atlantic’s prime hurricane breeding ground. While the ocean’s ready for its 11 o’clock number, the atmosphere’s still playing catch-up.
This week we’ll be following a series of disturbances rolling off Africa – ripples in the winds of the lower atmosphere called tropical waves. While these disturbances have been rolling off Africa into the Atlantic every three to five days since mid-May, it’s time to follow them more carefully as the environment becomes better suited for development.
The atmosphere still isn’t ripe for development in the deep tropics east of the Caribbean, but it’s making the turn. By late week into this weekend, upper-level winds should begin to relax and forecast models indicate one of these disturbances may have a chance to better organize into early next week as it moves toward the eastern Caribbean islands.
For now, guidance is lukewarm for development next week, likely due to the nearby Saharan Air Layer and other dry air intrusions from outside the tropics. Nevertheless, given the robustness of these tropical waves, the exceptional ocean warmth for July, and the increasingly conducive upper-level pattern, we’ll keep an eye to the eastern and central Atlantic this week, especially for our friends in the Lesser Antilles for early next week.
Elsewhere, Don has dwindled to a subtropical depression over the open North Atlantic and is expected to do donuts over the open ocean this week, posing no threat to land.
For us back in the mainland U.S. and South Florida, no tropical threats are expected in the week ahead.
It will be interesting to see if the depression DON can take advantage of one of these "doughnuts" loops and briefly touch warmer water and flare some thunderstorms at times. Again, it will be interesting to watch on satellite!!