Keeping an Eye on the African Coast

Forecast models indicate gradual development possible by late next week

The Atlantic’s seen its least active start to a hurricane season since 2009. Of course, some very busy hurricane seasons like 2004 and 1998 didn’t even see their first tropical systems until almost August, and, as we discussed in earlier newsletters, early season activity isn’t a good indicator of tropical activity to come. Historically, over 90 percent of Atlantic hurricanes form after July 23rd, so while the quiet start is certainly welcome, we know we still have most of the season still ahead of us. Even so, with it being quiet so far, many of us in the hurricane zone are left wondering when things might change.

Next week, we’ll be following developments in the eastern and central Atlantic. It’s the time of year when our gaze naturally turns to Africa for large thunderstorm clusters rolling into the Atlantic, some of which become our stronger hurricanes in August and September. A few of our reliable forecast models are keying in on a disturbance moving from northern Africa and into the Atlantic by next Tuesday. Although the environment ahead of the disturbance looks only marginally conducive, some gradual development is possible with the system by later next week.

Any development with this system should be slow and, with it being so far east in the Atlantic, it isn’t any immediate concern for us in South Florida. In the meantime, no organized tropical activity is expected elsewhere in the Atlantic through at least early next week.