It's August, So Where are the Hurricanes?
Invest 96L’s development odds are dwindling and forecast models are quiet for now, but don’t be fooled by August’s annual trickery
It happens nearly every year. After months of hurricane season chatter – often about expectations of hurricanes ahead – and coming off the warmest month of the year for most Americans, when August arrives and the hurricanes don’t, people start to ask “so where are the hurricanes?”
To be clear, 2023 has seen its first hurricane – Don, which formed back on July 22nd – and it came nearly 3 weeks before the typical first hurricane formation in the Atlantic. But the only hurricane of 2023 formed in the far reaches of the North Atlantic outside the traditional hurricane alley. With deep Atlantic waters sizzling amid record warmth, is something amiss that we don’t see any hurricanes to start August?
Not at all. Hurricane season often hits quickly. In some very active hurricane seasons like 1998 and 1999, the first hurricanes of the year didn’t form until the third week of August. Even 2017 – one of the most ferocious hurricane seasons in memory peppered with names like Harvey, Irma, and Maria – didn’t observe its first hurricane until August 9th.
So far in 2023 tropical activity has been running above average, with more activity to date than some very busy years like 2010 and 2017. Of course, as we discussed in previous newsletters that’s no guarantee the rest of the season will be above average, but it’s a reminder – like the above average seasonal hurricane forecasts – that there’s plenty working right now in the Atlantic.
Like expecting a big heat wave in early May, don’t expect a run of major hurricanes in early August. As we’ve discussed, the Atlantic usually starts churning up hurricanes in August, but typically doesn’t kick it into high gear until later in the month or early September. Historically, 90% of our Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes haven’t formed until after August 2nd.
For now, the disturbance we’ve been following since it rolled off Africa early last week is curling up into the central Atlantic. Development odds have dwindled over the past few days, and it’ll move harmlessly out to sea as it gets picked up by an approaching cold front.
Otherwise, the Atlantic should stay mostly quiet through the weekend.