South Florida seems basically off the hook. Maybe some scattered thunderstorms and feeder bands, nothing more. Probably the same for Fort Myers. The way I see things NOW, Cedar Key should prepare for a minimal 75 mph hurricane at least, by Thursday/Friday timeline. This could mean voluntary evacuations near the coastal areas. Beach erosion is likely from SE winds as the center gets close. Coastal flooding the reason to evacuate any beachfront property. There certainly will be heavy rain, and the NE quad likely best tornado chance. I didn't realize weather balloons were filled with hydrogen. I assumed they were helium, like your kid's balloon. I guess I don't know as much about weather balloons as I THOUGHT I did, LOL!!
Although I am glad my area is likely off the hook for the worst I really feel bad for those up north. No one deserves what this storm is bringing and the panhandle hasn't even recovered from Michael completely yet.
I think Michael was 4 years ago, was that right? I had heard Mexico Beach wasn't completely recovered. A minimum Cat 1 will cause some damage, but this isn't gonna be a Michael; it will set them back a bit, but they will recover quickly. Then, they will be back to the way they are NOW, and hopefully completely recover from Michael.
Storm surge I think will be their major problem up there if it goes that way. I just think they might be tired of the trouble and stress but its a choice to leave in these places. I knew what I was getting into moving here. A lot of people here are worrying because several weather reports (not Wink in Ft Myers) keep harping on Charley originally being on the same tract as Ian before making the right turn into us. I'm keeping watch but not getting worried about it unless it looks like it will. but until at least tomorrow afternoon there really isn't enough info to start getting upset.
I would keep tuned to the fact that models are shifting eastward a bit; they are not shifted drastically eastward, but any shift in actual storm track east does mean a stronger impacting storm than a westward shift that keeps the storm toward the Panhandle. That means more exposure to the dry air and shear. Don't worry too much about it now, but you had told me you have the car ready to go if possible, if you need to leave. The storm is now up to 60 miles an hour. Today it was raining heavy at times at Jamaica, as per the web cams, radar. As long as it wasn't lightning, some people were having fun swimming in a local swimming hole in the pouring rain on a Web cam in Jamaica. I don't know what the temperature was; probably in the low 80's. It was breezy but not windy, from the tropical storm.
I check in a few times a day to see what it up and will increase the number of times as it gets closer. I do not plan to be caught flat footed and want plenty of warning if I have to leave. I just want to wait so if I do I know which way to go but I expect north wouldn't be a good idea.
South Florida seems basically off the hook. Maybe some scattered thunderstorms and feeder bands, nothing more. Probably the same for Fort Myers. The way I see things NOW, Cedar Key should prepare for a minimal 75 mph hurricane at least, by Thursday/Friday timeline. This could mean voluntary evacuations near the coastal areas. Beach erosion is likely from SE winds as the center gets close. Coastal flooding the reason to evacuate any beachfront property. There certainly will be heavy rain, and the NE quad likely best tornado chance. I didn't realize weather balloons were filled with hydrogen. I assumed they were helium, like your kid's balloon. I guess I don't know as much about weather balloons as I THOUGHT I did, LOL!!
Although I am glad my area is likely off the hook for the worst I really feel bad for those up north. No one deserves what this storm is bringing and the panhandle hasn't even recovered from Michael completely yet.
I think Michael was 4 years ago, was that right? I had heard Mexico Beach wasn't completely recovered. A minimum Cat 1 will cause some damage, but this isn't gonna be a Michael; it will set them back a bit, but they will recover quickly. Then, they will be back to the way they are NOW, and hopefully completely recover from Michael.
Storm surge I think will be their major problem up there if it goes that way. I just think they might be tired of the trouble and stress but its a choice to leave in these places. I knew what I was getting into moving here. A lot of people here are worrying because several weather reports (not Wink in Ft Myers) keep harping on Charley originally being on the same tract as Ian before making the right turn into us. I'm keeping watch but not getting worried about it unless it looks like it will. but until at least tomorrow afternoon there really isn't enough info to start getting upset.
I would keep tuned to the fact that models are shifting eastward a bit; they are not shifted drastically eastward, but any shift in actual storm track east does mean a stronger impacting storm than a westward shift that keeps the storm toward the Panhandle. That means more exposure to the dry air and shear. Don't worry too much about it now, but you had told me you have the car ready to go if possible, if you need to leave. The storm is now up to 60 miles an hour. Today it was raining heavy at times at Jamaica, as per the web cams, radar. As long as it wasn't lightning, some people were having fun swimming in a local swimming hole in the pouring rain on a Web cam in Jamaica. I don't know what the temperature was; probably in the low 80's. It was breezy but not windy, from the tropical storm.
I check in a few times a day to see what it up and will increase the number of times as it gets closer. I do not plan to be caught flat footed and want plenty of warning if I have to leave. I just want to wait so if I do I know which way to go but I expect north wouldn't be a good idea.
Believe it or not, I would go to Jupiter or West Palm Beach area, maybe Miami. SE Florida may only get fringe effects like feeder bands.
Very good graphics on your predictions