Please be a good guy and head out into the Atlantic, no one needs a visit from you Sara, especially those of us on the Gulf coast of Florida. We have had a bit too much this year from your friends.
Even if it tried to come north, it would meet her demise from the same dry air and shear that killed Rafael, and will eat Sara, too, IF there IS a Sara.
It is now Invest 99l. It is a step short from becoming Sara. There is still a chance it goes to the Keys as a weakening storm, then out toward the Bahamas and out to sea as a weakening low.
I just checked a couple of sites and they are saying it now has a very high probability of becoming Sara and that it will make a sharp eastward turn and come across parts of Cuba or Florida. As far down the state as I am that makes me want to keep a close eye on it. Charley and Ian weren't supposed to hit here, Irma came up after hitting Marco Island and Naples. Yeah, I'm a bit paranoid, these storms seem to do the most unexpected of things.
I haven't read Mike's post yet today, but I watched FOX Weather this morning. Here's what THEY know: It is still only a weakling invest, only 25 miles an hour. A weaker storm tends to go further west. A STRONGER storm tends to go further north. Conditions can be especially tricky this time of year. If you have no wind shear in the Carribean, but TONS of it in the Gulf, and an invest is trapped by the Southeast Ridge, it may fester over the warm water. If the jet stream and sheat dip s little south, it can tug the storm north. A little shear can energize it, turning it into a storm or hurricane. Since it's over warm water, little shear, it may fester and form, and be pulled west to the Yucatan by the high to the north. After the ridge leaves, it can then be tugged north by the shear and jet stream. Indeed, the guidance NOW shows a turn to South Florida after it goes to Yucatan. If the storm happens to "miss" catching the ride on the jet stream, the storm would indeed go inland and die out in Yucatan, OR it could go north toward Texas. The Florida scenario now seems more likely than it was yesterday, per FOX WEATHER. The GFS has been showing this for several days. So, I think you are right, Laura. This could be a strange, messy Thanksgiving in South Florida with wind, showers, thunderstorms and maybe a weak hurricane or high-end tropical storm. Expect a ton of rain.
I really, really hope she doesn't come here. We don't need another west to east hurricane flying across the Gulf. Milton was bad enough even if it was only a Cat 3. I am also really tired of hurricanes this year. I'd also like the humidity to die like it usually does by now. I haven't bothered to file a claim with the insurance company as my damages probably will be under or just over the deductible.
Please be a good guy and head out into the Atlantic, no one needs a visit from you Sara, especially those of us on the Gulf coast of Florida. We have had a bit too much this year from your friends.
Even if it tried to come north, it would meet her demise from the same dry air and shear that killed Rafael, and will eat Sara, too, IF there IS a Sara.
I know that is likely but considering the crappy things that happen that weren't supposed to in the past I remain cautious.
It is now Invest 99l. It is a step short from becoming Sara. There is still a chance it goes to the Keys as a weakening storm, then out toward the Bahamas and out to sea as a weakening low.
I just checked a couple of sites and they are saying it now has a very high probability of becoming Sara and that it will make a sharp eastward turn and come across parts of Cuba or Florida. As far down the state as I am that makes me want to keep a close eye on it. Charley and Ian weren't supposed to hit here, Irma came up after hitting Marco Island and Naples. Yeah, I'm a bit paranoid, these storms seem to do the most unexpected of things.
I haven't read Mike's post yet today, but I watched FOX Weather this morning. Here's what THEY know: It is still only a weakling invest, only 25 miles an hour. A weaker storm tends to go further west. A STRONGER storm tends to go further north. Conditions can be especially tricky this time of year. If you have no wind shear in the Carribean, but TONS of it in the Gulf, and an invest is trapped by the Southeast Ridge, it may fester over the warm water. If the jet stream and sheat dip s little south, it can tug the storm north. A little shear can energize it, turning it into a storm or hurricane. Since it's over warm water, little shear, it may fester and form, and be pulled west to the Yucatan by the high to the north. After the ridge leaves, it can then be tugged north by the shear and jet stream. Indeed, the guidance NOW shows a turn to South Florida after it goes to Yucatan. If the storm happens to "miss" catching the ride on the jet stream, the storm would indeed go inland and die out in Yucatan, OR it could go north toward Texas. The Florida scenario now seems more likely than it was yesterday, per FOX WEATHER. The GFS has been showing this for several days. So, I think you are right, Laura. This could be a strange, messy Thanksgiving in South Florida with wind, showers, thunderstorms and maybe a weak hurricane or high-end tropical storm. Expect a ton of rain.
I really, really hope she doesn't come here. We don't need another west to east hurricane flying across the Gulf. Milton was bad enough even if it was only a Cat 3. I am also really tired of hurricanes this year. I'd also like the humidity to die like it usually does by now. I haven't bothered to file a claim with the insurance company as my damages probably will be under or just over the deductible.
So, can this storm be anywhere near as bad as Milton or Helene if it does head to Florida?
No, Hazel. This would be 2 different storms, different weather patterns, cooler temps. The MOST it might do is be a minimal hurricane if at all.