Gulf Formation Odds Tumble but Flood Threat Remains
Atlantic tropical activity at its lowest through mid-July since 2011
The area of low pressure that’s been festering all week along the northern Gulf coast continues to produce scattered storminess from the western Florida panhandle to south Louisiana. Since the start of the week, the big question to future development was how much of the system would remain over water to harness the near-record warmth of the northern Gulf. The very slow drift of the low pressure area the past few days has kept it on beach duty, riding the fence between land and water. Forecast models are in better agreement today moving the disturbance farther inland today and tomorrow, which will shut down development potential.
The likelihood of heavy rain and flood threat continues along the northern Gulf coast into the weekend, however, as the disturbance will help to wring out a moisture-laden atmosphere. The stagnant pattern and weak steering flow means that storms that form will be slow to move, increasing the flood risk, especially in locations where grounds are already soaked from recent rains.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a large upper-level low pinwheeling westward across Hispaniola is kicking up 70 knots of hostile wind shear across parts of the central Caribbean today (for reference, the Caribbean averages around 30 knots of wind shear this time of year). These hostile upper-level winds, along with a large, dusty Saharan air outbreak will shut down the Atlantic to development through the weekend.
Although the Atlantic is running ahead of schedule in terms of named storms, activity overall – measured by the strength and duration of storms that have formed – is the lowest through this point in the season since 2011. On the flip side, across the eastern Pacific, where Category 4 Hurricane Darby rapidly strengthened on Sunday and another storm is expected to form later this week, through today tropical activity is the fourth highest of any season on record – behind only 2015, 1992, and 1984. Two of these years were strong El Nino years, where warmer than average waters in the Pacific boost storm activity. As we discussed in last Friday’s newsletter, the activity so far (or lack thereof) isn’t an indication of what we can expect for the rest of the season.
Thank you. It is really nice to know that those of us in southern Florida can relax for another week at this time of year.