I’ve been tracking the 06Z GEFS this morning and I’m deeply unsettled by what I’m seeing. The ensemble spread seems to be converging on a Texas landfall around August 19, and if that verifies, I fear we’re not just looking at a hurricane strike—we’re staring down the barrel of a domestic urban refugee crisis.
I’m talking about a scenario where Houston and Southeast Texas are irrepairably gutted, triggering the displacement of 11.3 million people. The scale of trauma, infrastructure collapse, and institutional paralysis would be unprecedented.
I can’t shake the image of Houston & SETX resembling Gaza—not just physically, but emotionally. Survivors with complete PTSD. Racial and class fault lines exposed. No one willing or able to return.
I know you’re one of the best in the field. Could you share your thoughts on the GEFS trajectory and whether this kind of cascading crisis is something we should be preparing for?
Don't much like the looks of the Euro right now *sighing* I guess the lull is over.
As long as they avoid the Saharan dust, the lull is over. Also, if shear is low.
And with the MJO in the MDR
At least that one out in the Atlantic looks like it will not hit us...hopefully.
Michael,
I’ve been tracking the 06Z GEFS this morning and I’m deeply unsettled by what I’m seeing. The ensemble spread seems to be converging on a Texas landfall around August 19, and if that verifies, I fear we’re not just looking at a hurricane strike—we’re staring down the barrel of a domestic urban refugee crisis.
I’m talking about a scenario where Houston and Southeast Texas are irrepairably gutted, triggering the displacement of 11.3 million people. The scale of trauma, infrastructure collapse, and institutional paralysis would be unprecedented.
I can’t shake the image of Houston & SETX resembling Gaza—not just physically, but emotionally. Survivors with complete PTSD. Racial and class fault lines exposed. No one willing or able to return.
I know you’re one of the best in the field. Could you share your thoughts on the GEFS trajectory and whether this kind of cascading crisis is something we should be preparing for?
—Paul