Coastal Storm Shaping Up to End the Week
Developing coastal storm tracking toward the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic may have a brief window to obtain a name
The non-tropical area of low pressure we’ve been discussing in the newsletter this week will be coming together starting tomorrow to the east of the Florida peninsula. The low-pressure system will be riding along a stalled cold front – a disqualifying factor for tropical cyclone designation – but has a narrow window to take on some tropical characteristics as it organizes over the warm Gulf Stream over the next few days. If it does attain enough storminess near the low-pressure center to be designated a subtropical storm, it would be named by the National Hurricane Center (either Ophelia or Philippe).
Named or not, the developing coastal storm will bring ugly weather to coastal areas up the southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic starting late tomorrow and Friday. Winds will reach tropical storm strength (39 mph or stronger) in spots and seas will build to 10-15 feet along the immediate coastline. Though heavy rainfall should be limited to locations right along the coast, up to 5 inches of rainfall from the Carolinas to the Delmarva through Sunday could lead to localized flooding. Coastal flooding will be an issue, especially around the times of high tide.
For now, models suggest this will probably stay frontal and non-tropical, but we’ll be following the trends closely tomorrow into Friday for our neighbors to the north. The coastal storm will not directly impact our weather in South Florida.
Wave off Africa poised to slowly develop and head west
The tropical wave we first mentioned in the newsletter last Friday has emerged off Africa and into the waters of the eastern Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a high chance of development over the next 7 days.
Development will likely be slow with this one, which will keep it on a more westward trajectory into next week. Since it won’t immediately turn out like more recent storms, we’ll need to keep an eye on it for the islands for middle next week.
Hurricane Nigel plateaus over the open Atlantic
Nigel appears to have peaked as a Category 2 hurricane and will be quickly whisked away through the North Atlantic by the high-latitude westerlies. By the weekend, the system will be absorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone south of Iceland.
So much for the Category 3 major hurricane Nigel. It was a bad model guess, but it is a fish storm. It will bother nobody unless it goes to Iceland as a strong early autumn storm.