The Atlantic has struggled to crank out any new storms for 3 weeks during the traditional ramp up to the hurricane season peak. Are all the hyperactive hurricane season forecasts overblown?
It is a negative as the science behind it was flawed and what the public was told and expected to happen. We have come to trust pre season forecasts in general. Most of the time they are within certain parameters. This season had high bust potential to begin with. The scientists have their work cut out for them to examine this bust season and look at factors that were not seen.
Why did it have bust potential to begin with, when you say certain factors were NOT seen? If they were not seen, how could you say there is "bust potential" without knowing the unknown factors? We thought we knew everything about hurricanes and tropical storms. Well, we may have to go back to the drawing board, and analyze the factors that may NOT have been seen, such as a lack of a pronounced return to La Nina. Remember, these forecasts were made based on the information we HAD; not based on information we WISHED we had. The forecasts are only as good as the information behind them is. Obviously, we need to learn additional information about what makes a hurricane season tick and what makes it STOP ticking in mid-stream. New factors, including the eruption of Tonga volcano 2 years ago, may help to explain what's going on NOW. It's part of the learning curve. It comes with the territory. We need to learn as we go, to have the best understanding of how these storms work, and we should be thankful for this "win" this year, as it meant a lot less damage, few lives lost, few people injured, and economies left intact, and livelihoods unaffected. A bust season is a positive, not a negative.
Thanks for your posts, Michael. Very helpful. I read on the NOAA's website (https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes) that warming seas in the Atlantic/Caribbean don't necessarily lead to more and stronger hurricanes, if other tropical surface temps globally rise by around the same amount (meaning, it's more about change relative to other tropical ocean temps). It would be very interesting to see you write about the data comparing how warm the Atlantic/Caribbean is compared to the other tropic SSTs, to see if there's a difference that could inform us as to whether the increased surface temp should lead to more and stronger hurricanes this year.
Next significant development may come from the Bay of Campeche, as a low emanating from the Central American gyre. One global model has it tracking north toward the TX/LA coast and developing into a hurricane. Another model has it plowing west into Mexico. This will be the focus of forecasters for the next several days.
I wouldn’t be negative about a “bust”. I’d call it a WIN!!
Me too 😀
It is a negative as the science behind it was flawed and what the public was told and expected to happen. We have come to trust pre season forecasts in general. Most of the time they are within certain parameters. This season had high bust potential to begin with. The scientists have their work cut out for them to examine this bust season and look at factors that were not seen.
Why did it have bust potential to begin with, when you say certain factors were NOT seen? If they were not seen, how could you say there is "bust potential" without knowing the unknown factors? We thought we knew everything about hurricanes and tropical storms. Well, we may have to go back to the drawing board, and analyze the factors that may NOT have been seen, such as a lack of a pronounced return to La Nina. Remember, these forecasts were made based on the information we HAD; not based on information we WISHED we had. The forecasts are only as good as the information behind them is. Obviously, we need to learn additional information about what makes a hurricane season tick and what makes it STOP ticking in mid-stream. New factors, including the eruption of Tonga volcano 2 years ago, may help to explain what's going on NOW. It's part of the learning curve. It comes with the territory. We need to learn as we go, to have the best understanding of how these storms work, and we should be thankful for this "win" this year, as it meant a lot less damage, few lives lost, few people injured, and economies left intact, and livelihoods unaffected. A bust season is a positive, not a negative.
Thanks for your posts, Michael. Very helpful. I read on the NOAA's website (https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes) that warming seas in the Atlantic/Caribbean don't necessarily lead to more and stronger hurricanes, if other tropical surface temps globally rise by around the same amount (meaning, it's more about change relative to other tropical ocean temps). It would be very interesting to see you write about the data comparing how warm the Atlantic/Caribbean is compared to the other tropic SSTs, to see if there's a difference that could inform us as to whether the increased surface temp should lead to more and stronger hurricanes this year.
An Oreo season in the offing. Strong Start. Soft middle. Strong end. Or not!
Next significant development may come from the Bay of Campeche, as a low emanating from the Central American gyre. One global model has it tracking north toward the TX/LA coast and developing into a hurricane. Another model has it plowing west into Mexico. This will be the focus of forecasters for the next several days.