Almost August, the Start of Hurricane Season's Busiest Stretch

Watching two areas for development this week but neither poses a threat to land

Authors Note: The daily newsletter was on a brief hiatus last week as my wife and I welcomed in our second child, a baby boy. Mother Nature has a wry sense of humor, giving us now two hurricane season kids.

Though July managed to eke out the Atlantic’s first hurricane of 2023 – Don, a hurricane for all but 12 hours in the far reaches of the North Atlantic – 3 out of 4 Julys end without recording a single hurricane. The Atlantic is a slow starter, but once the calendar turns to August, things can pick up, and in a hurry. Few Augusts end without any hurricane formations. Last season gave us a surprising August break, but over the past 70 years, only 12 hurricane seasons have escaped August without an Atlantic hurricane. In August, budding storms want to spin.

Looking out across the Atlantic this morning, we see a map ready to turn the page to August.

A tropical disturbance that rolled off Africa early last week – now dubbed Invest 96L – is firing off disorganized storminess as it bends northward into the central Atlantic. Although development odds remain high, it continues to battle stiff upper-level winds out of the west which are blowing thunderstorms away, not allowing 96L’s fledgling circulation to become better defined as of yet. Nevertheless, the system is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm over the coming days.

Regardless of development, 96L won’t make it much farther west as it finds the escape hatch from a break in the Bermuda high. A very sharp dip in the jet stream will whisk the system toward the cooler waters of the North Atlantic by mid-week before it’s able to find much footing. 96L is no threat to land in the coming week.

Meanwhile, the low-pressure system that brought a good dose of heavy rain to South Florida last Thursday and an abrupt end to 37 consecutive days of above average temperatures is accelerating out to sea north of Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center designated this low-pressure area Invest 97L on Sunday, but it’ll be merging with a front today and development odds are quickly waning.

Though the system is a concern for marine interests only, its impressive organization over the weekend while still over land – fueled in part by the nearby extra-warm Gulf Stream waters – serves as a reminder of how quickly storms can spin up in August and September when the Atlantic is ripe for development.

Radar loop from last Thursday through Sunday night showing the evolution of the low-pressure system now dubbed Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center. The low-pressure circulation became much better defined on Saturday as it skirted the coasts of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, pulling soupy, tropical air from nearby Gulf Stream waters.

For now at least, looking out on the eve of August’s opening day, tropical activity will stay safely away, with no threats looming for South Florida or the broader U.S. in the week ahead.