Why the Next Potential System is Raising Eyebrows
The eastern Atlantic low-pressure system dubbed Storm Oscar by European forecasters is no threat to the U.S. but is a forecast rarity
It isn’t every year that we look closer to Spain and Portugal than to the U.S. in early June for tropical formation, but that’s exactly where the National Hurricane Center is looking to this morning. A strong non-tropical wintertime low pressure system located near the Azores in the northeastern Atlantic – some 3,500 miles northeast of Miami – has a brief window to gain subtropical characteristics before moving toward cooler waters by late tomorrow into Thursday. The windstorm was named Storm Oscar by the State Meteorological Agency of Spain earlier this week, the next name on a European naming list designed for October to March wintertime low-pressure systems.
Despite extremely strong vertical wind shear and water temperatures below 70 degrees Fahrenheit in the vicinity (typically 80 degrees Fahrenheit is the necessary though not sufficient condition for tropical development), NHC is giving this unusually high-latitude system a low chance of formation. If the system can acquire subtropical characteristics, it would be unprecedented for June or even July in this part of the world.
The system is sitting beneath a blocked flow pattern – under sprawling high pressure from Greenland to the United Kingdom – a setup researchers have found can promote subtropical development. Although waters in the vicinity are cool relative to those we’d find in the deep tropics, they are blistering relative to seasonal averages.
The much warmer-than-average ocean fuel is supporting stronger storms near the center of the low-pressure system, storminess being flamed further by strong winds aloft. Like a hybrid engine that runs on both gasoline and electric, the warm ocean and typical wintertime processes may pool their resources to support a short-lived subtropical cyclone this week.
Thunderstorm tops for hybrid storms aren’t as tall as the ones in fully tropical systems, which also makes these systems less impacted by strong winds at upper levels.
Regardless, the main impacts from the low-pressure system will be strong winds, large waves, and flooding rains to the Canary Islands and Madeira this week.
The tropical Atlantic closer to the U.S. has settled down in the wake of Arlene last week, with no development expected through the remainder of the week.
If it were to develop into a sub-tropical storm, whatever the B name, is it Brett? It would be the B name on the list. It would only be another "shortie" with maybe 40 mile-an-hour winds, another one of those borderline hybrid storms the NHC will debate as to whether it deserved a name or not. Anyway, other than being a nasty wind and rain storm and bringing crummy weather to Spain and Western Europe, it won't be much to write home about.