Whispers of Life Across a Sleepy Atlantic

Models showing activity slowly picking up into next week

It’s been a while since we’ve seen any new candidates for development in the Atlantic, but this morning the National Hurricane Center is highlighting two areas: one small but well-defined low-pressure center that poses no threat over the open Atlantic and another disturbance that could come together by this weekend and move toward the easternmost Caribbean islands for early next week.

An open Atlantic curiosity

The system with the most immediate odds for development is a tiny but tenacious area of low pressure squarely over the central Atlantic, a system spawned from one of those northerly-moving tropical waves we’ve been discussing in this newsletter.

Enhanced satellite loop through around 9:30 AM ET Wednesday, August 28th, showing the tiny, well-defined but naked swirl over the open Atlantic several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Credit: Weathernerds.org

It showed some organized storminess briefly on Tuesday before strong winds aloft toppled over the building thunderstorms. High wind shear and nearby dry air should limit its development chances and anything that forms would be short-lived with no threat to land.

Looking ahead to next week

We continue to follow a system that may come together in the deep tropical Atlantic by this weekend. In general, models are lukewarm on its development odds next week but given the time of year and possible trajectory toward the islands, we’ll need to monitor the trends.

So far at least, forecast models have cooled some with this system. Its origins are a little messy, as whatever forms would come from a broad, elongated area of storminess stretching from Africa into the central Atlantic. We’ll need to watch to see where anything coalesces, if at all, in the coming days.

Low-pressure tracks through next Tuesday morning from the European model ensemble system showing a handful of development scenarios near the eastern Caribbean islands. For now, models are only lukewarm on development into next week. Credit: Weathernerds.org

Our forecast models are also beginning to sniff out another possible system that’ll be moving off Africa in the next few days.

The large and impressive African Easterly Wave will roll into the Atlantic at a much more typical latitude than the disturbances of the past few weeks. We’ll have some time to watch this one as it slowly moves through the eastern Atlantic next week.