While the Tropics Rest, the Atlantic Heats Up

The Gulf of Mexico is nearing its seasonal temperature peak while warmth across the tropical Atlantic is trailing only 2023 and 2010

Current sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico. Credit: Brian McNoldy/University of Miami

We all know how important warm waters are to hurricanes. The heat of the ocean is the power source of hurricanes and water temperature across the tropical Atlantic is the single biggest predictor of how active the hurricane season will be, especially by August when they explain a whopping 66% of the year-to-year difference in seasonal hurricane activity. Of course, in any given week or on any given day, other variables will help determine when or where we see big, strong hurricanes. As we discussed earlier this week, for last week or two of August, the other players will be benched, which means the hurricane season will be without key supporting characters.

Once the other players return to the field, however, they’ll find their star performer ready for primetime. The Gulf of Mexico is nearing its annual sea surface temperature zenith, and the warmth it’s experiencing is far above the normal range and running second only to the unprecedented warmth of 2023.

Not only is the Gulf blistering warm at the surface, the heat extends down hundreds of feet. Waters as warm as 85 degrees Fahrenheit have been recorded at depths of 160 feet or more according to instruments peppering the Gulf of Mexico designed to profile the subsurface.

Ocean temperature profiles from floats across the Gulf of Mexico via the Argo research program. Notice how some floats show water temperatures above 29 degrees Celsius (84.2 degrees Fahrenheit) extending to a depth of nearly 70 meters (230 feet). Credit: Dr. Kim Wood/University of Arizona

With temperatures as warm and deep as they are, the ocean heat content over the Gulf of Mexico – a measurement describing the amount of heat energy stored in the ocean – hasn’t been as high as it is today since we began tracking it in 2013.

Daily ocean heat content across the Gulf of Mexico for 2024 (deep red line) compared to 2023 (light red line), average (blue line), and from 2013-2022 (gray lines). The ocean heat content today for the Gulf of Mexico is a record high. Credit: Brian McNoldy/University of Miami

Overall, record warmth continues to consume most of the tropical Atlantic, including the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and the eastern section of the Main Development Region or MDR, where most of our strongest hurricanes get their start this time of year.

In fact, the eastern MDR doesn’t hit its seasonal temperature peak until later in September but continues to ride above the warmth of waters during hyperactive years like 2005. So far, its only trailing 2023’s unprecedented warmth and for now 2010, though that may be eclipsed soon.

So once the other players return to the field in the next few weeks, their clean-up hitter will be juiced. Stay vigilant because once the Atlantic picks up again, it will be ready for primetime action.