Wet Holiday for Parts of Florida's Peninsula as Low Pressure Slowly Organizes

A tropical system could gradually take shape off the southeast this weekend but heavy rainfall is the primary threat

A combination of weather features, including a stalled front and developing area of low pressure off northeast Florida, have turned on the holiday tap, directing rounds of tropically-infused storms toward the Florida peninsula beginning today and extending into the holiday weekend.

Though the main feature of interest off the southeast is being monitored for tropical development, the fetch of juicy, unstable air to its south will sweep periods of heavy rain into west-central Florida, especially along Florida’s Gulf Coast and its I-75 corridor from just north of Tampa southward to Naples, beginning today and spreading over much of Florida’s peninsula for the Fourth of July.

Excessive rainfall outlook through Friday morning from the NWS Weather Prediction Center. Areas shaded in yellow (slight risk) indicate where scattered flash flooding is possible. Credit: National Weather Service

Our computer models are in good agreement with a broad area of low pressure forming off coastal Georgia and the Carolinas over the weekend, but they remain decidedly unenthusiastic on significant development as it loiters near or along the coast into early next week.

Low-pressure tracks from the overnight run of the European model ensemble system largely show the possibility of a tropical depression or low-grade tropical storm tracking near or over the Carolinas by late weekend into early next week. Credit: Weathernerds.org

While a tropical depression or low-grade tropical storm could come together off the southeast by later this weekend or early next week, periods of heavy rain seeping northward into coastal areas of Georgia and North and South Carolina this weekend will be the primary threat regardless of development.

By Tuesday and Wednesday next week, the system should pick up the pace and pull away from the U.S. as it accelerates up the Eastern Seaboard.

Behind it, the Atlantic will stay generally quiet for the remainder of next week.