Tropical Depression Ten Organizing, Takes Aim at Florida
Barrage of hurricane hunter missions starting today to help steady forecasts
Invest 93L was upgraded to Tropical Depression Ten Saturday afternoon and continues to steadily organize as it meanders near the island of Cozumel and the eastern tip of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula. Radar out of Cancun this morning shows a fledgling center that’s rotating southward, with a slight tug east toward new thunderstorms billowing southeast of Cozumel.
The Depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Idalia today and gradually strengthen into tomorrow, accelerating toward Florida’s panhandle, Big Bend, or west coast as a hurricane by Tuesday.
There’s a growing concern for potential rapid intensification on approach to Florida by mid-week, so residents are urged to pay close attention to quickly changing forecasts and recommendations from local officials.
Happening Today
The system is still in its formative stages and movement of nascent centers when steering currents are light is often dictated by new thunderstorm growth, which is notoriously difficult to predict. With the center still ill-defined, the forecast of future track and intensity is more uncertain than usual. Nevertheless, the low-pressure system continues to organize with steady pressure falls in the area, including at a buoy roughly 100 miles east of the apparent center down to 1003 mb.
NOAA Hurricane Hunters took off from St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands shortly before 6 AM local this morning for the 1400-mile flight west to investigate Tropical Depression Ten. The flight kicks off an extensive schedule of hurricane hunter missions – 7 flights in a matter of 24 hours – from both the U.S. Air Force and NOAA crews to survey both the developing storm and the environment ahead over the Gulf of Mexico. The data will be fed into forecast models beginning later today with the goal of improving forecast confidence and accuracy.
Growing concern for rapid strengthening this week
Our more reliable intensity aids continue to show the potential for future Idalia to quickly strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico as it accelerates toward the Florida Gulf Coast next week. While intensity guidance this far out should be taken with a grain of salt, the trends do indicate a growing concern for rapid intensification over record warm Gulf waters this week. The upper-level wind pattern will be on a razor’s edge such that the buckling of jet stream winds over the central Gulf could favor strengthening above that currently forecast.
While forecasts suggest a Category 1 hurricane threat, those along Florida’s coast should be prepared for a potentially stronger hurricane.
U.S. watches and warnings coming soon
With the arrival of tropical storm winds in Florida as early as Tuesday, tropical storm and hurricane watches could be issued for parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast as soon as tonight. Watches and warnings will also be accompanied by more detailed information on hazards such as potential storm surge. Those in the path of the storm should take today and tomorrow to finalize preparations before tropical storm conditions reach the coast.
Florida’s 14-day Disaster Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday began Saturday
Yesterday, Florida began its second two-week Disaster Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday (August 26th through September 8th), whereby qualifying disaster prep supplies are exempt from typical sales tax. The sales tax includes items from pet food and batteries to portable generators. For a list of eligible items, please see this guide from Florida’s Department of Revenue.
The bottom line
Tropical Depression Ten continues to organize and will soon be upgraded to Tropical Storm Idalia. The system poses a serious threat to Florida’s Gulf Coast as a potentially strong hurricane intensifying on approach. Dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is likely from the panhandle through the state’s sweeping Big Bend and west coast. Heavy rainfall and strong winds will accompany soon-to-be Idalia’s circulation across the southeastern U.S. this week.
Franklin forecast to rapidly strengthen, threat to Bermuda increases
Franklin continues to strengthen and is explicitly forecast to rapidly intensify in the coming hours to the first Category 3 or stronger hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
Forecast models, which initially showed Franklin getting swept safely west of Bermuda by a dip in the jet stream, have in recent runs showed the storm instead lingering behind and encroaching farther east, putting Bermuda under higher risk for direct impacts. While Bermuda remains on the edge of the 5-day forecast cone, residents and visitors should check back on the forecast today and tomorrow.
Franklin’s closest approach to Bermuda will be on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Development odds with Invest 92L in the central Atlantic have quickly diminished.
The only other area we’re tracking is a disturbance set to move into the eastern Atlantic, where development odds will remain low this week.
What steering current is anticipated to curve the storm east? TY.