Tracking the Tropical Wave Train Over Africa
No immediate concerns for the Atlantic, but keeping a closer eye to these disturbances headed into mid and late August
We’re rounding out another gloriously quiet week in the tropical Atlantic. A fresh plume of Saharan dust is sprinkled atop the eastern and central Atlantic while blistering wind shear has closed the Caribbean for business. This is the atmosphere we love to see, especially in August, and the abrasive conditions will persist into the weekend, extending the Atlantic’s recent dry spell.
Next week, we’ll be tracking the conga line of disturbances lined up over Africa that’ll be rolling into the tropical Atlantic. It’s the time of year when the African wave train picks up steam, and tropical waves – large ripples in winds 5,000 to 10,000 feet up resembling ocean waves – often serve as dry kindle for some of our most powerful hurricanes.
None of the disturbances we’re following right now appears poised to organize much as they each move off Africa in the coming days. The leading disturbance may pave a path of more conducive conditions – shaking out some of the dry and stable air in this part of the Atlantic – for the disturbance behind it, set to emerge off Africa by late weekend. Still, our forecast models aren’t finding much to latch onto just yet, as residual wind shear lingers into next week.
Climatology is a strong driving factor in August and September. Within the next several weeks, the Atlantic will flip the switch and the busiest part of the season will be upon us. Since we don’t know precisely when that’ll be, we keep closer tabs on the tropical disturbances journeying through the Atlantic. For now, we wait.