Significant Hurricane Threat Growing for the Northeastern Gulf Coast

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine forthcoming, with a forecast putting the northeastern Gulf – including the Florida panhandle and Big Bend – on high alert

Pre-dawn satellite Monday showing thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 97L (soon-to-be Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine) in the western Caribbean. Credit: CIRA/Colorado State University

An organizing cluster of storms over the western Caribbean east of Central America is expected to gradually develop into a named storm over the next day or two and could quickly strengthen into a formidable hurricane as it accelerates toward the northeastern Gulf Coast – including parts of the Florida panhandle and Big Bend – by late Thursday into early Friday.

The next name on the list is Helene.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine forthcoming

On Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center indicated watches or warnings would be required for parts of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula and western Cuba in the hours ahead, which will trigger a full suite of official forecast products, including the first forecast cone, for newly designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine by 11 AM ET.

Our most reliable intensity guidance suggests a significant hurricane threat mounting as the strengthening system encounters a deep pool of warm water over the east-central Gulf of Mexico by mid-week. It’s increasingly likely that a major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane will threaten parts of north Florida or its sweeping Big Bend before the work week is done.

Track probabilities into this weekend from the overnight runs of the major global forecast models. The consensus suggests the greatest coastal threat from Mobile to Tampa, but residents along Florida’s entire west coast will need to monitor the looming storm’s path for potentially significant impacts this week. Credit: Tomer Burg/University of Oklahoma

Residents from Mobile to Tampa especially should check back frequently on the forecasts this week. Those along Florida’s entire west coast will also need to monitor the looming storm’s path, as even a glancing blow could deliver heavy rain and significant coastal impacts.

If the potential tropical cyclone strengthens as robustly as many models forecast, its fast forward speed by the latter part of the week could also spell trouble far inland across the southeastern U.S., with widespread impacts stretching into north Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and the Carolinas, beginning in earnest on Friday.

The forecast is pointing toward a particularly damaging and impactful week of weather for the southeastern U.S.

An environment ripe for strengthening

Over the next day or two, we’ll be watching for how quickly the system organizes and whether or not it develops a compact core, a feature recent systems struggled to attain. A consolidated core – characterized by a tight rather than broad wind field and concentrated region of storminess – could kick off a period of rapid intensification as the system moves into a ripe environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico showing the warm loop current – an extension of the Gulf Stream that runs along the U.S. east coast – with a warm eddy (a circular current of water) pinching off between the Yucatán Peninsula and Florida. This reservoir of deep, warm water ahead could hasten strengthening of the system by mid-week. Credit: Alex Boreham/cyclonicwx.com

The orientation of upper-level winds from a nearby jet stream dip should generally promote steady to quick strengthening for Wednesday and Thursday and our most reliable high-resolution hurricane models advertise a devastating major hurricane on approach to north Florida.

Model intensity forecasts for Invest 97L (soon-to-be Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine). Forecast models generally suggest a major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane before landfall late Thursday or early Friday. Credit: Alex Boreham/cyclonicwx.com

Intensity forecasts are always the sticky wicket of hurricane forecasts but the high ceiling and the possibility of a hurricane quickly strengthening on approach to land means that those in the path should be ready to implement their hurricane plans and evacuate if recommended to do so.

Wet and windy weather for South Florida

While South Florida isn’t under a direct threat from the developing storm system, we will see periphery effects, mainly from an extended period of wet and windy weather beginning tomorrow night for the Keys and on Wednesday for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.

Rainfall forecast through next weekend from the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center. Rounds of blustery downpours will begin as early as Tuesday night across the Florida Keys and on Wednesday for the urban corridor of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. The period of wet and windy weather could extend all the way through the end of the workweek. Credit: Pivotal Weather

The rounds of tropical downpours may last all the way through Friday which could lead to localized flooding, especially toward the end of the week.

No imminent threats elsewhere across the Atlantic

Across the wider Atlantic, a tropical disturbance off the west coast of Africa is forecast to develop by the middle to latter part of the week over the eastern Atlantic, but models generally turn the system into the open Atlantic well before reaching the islands.