Rafael Rapidly Strengthens on Approach to Cuba, To Pass West of the Florida Keys Tonight

Rafael to bring tropical storm conditions to the lower and middle Keys by this evening and an indirect flood threat to inland Georgia and South Carolina today

Wednesday morning “sandwich” satellite (combined enhanced and visible satellite) of Hurricane Rafael approaching western Cuba. Credit: NOAA

Rafael took advantage of a deep reservoir of warm water south of Cuba to rapidly intensify since yesterday and is expected to be a major (Category 3) hurricane before striking western Cuba later today.

The hurricane is moving near the Isle of Youth and will quickly track across western Cuba in the coming hours before bending west as it enters the Gulf of Mexico, passing about 150 miles west of the lower Florida Keys tonight.

Though Rafael’s dangerous core will stay a safe distance from the Keys, gusty winds above 40 mph and at times squally outer rainbands will affect the lower and middle Keys – primarily west of Islamorada – starting late this afternoon through the overnight hours. Damaging winds aren’t expected but localized street flooding can’t be ruled out for parts of the Keys in outer bands.

South Florida will contend with another day or two of windy weather indirectly associated with Rafael before usual breezes return and drier air moves in to end the work week.

Rafael poses no direct threat to mainland South Florida or the peninsula.

Tropical tap brings flood threat inland to Georgia and South Carolina today

The unusual November surge of tropical air ahead of Rafael into the southeastern U.S. will collide with a developing front over Georgia and South Carolina today to wring out plentiful rainfall across areas that haven’t seen significant rainfall in over a month.

The Weather Prediction Center upped their excessive rainfall outlook to a level 3 of 4 from today through early Thursday for parts of south and central Georgia and western South Carolina for the possibility of numerous flash floods from the tropically-fueled rains. Rainfall guidance suggests about a 25% chance of a 100-year flood event in this moderate risk area that includes cities like Warner Robbins and Augusta, Georgia.

Although it’s been dry lately, the parched clay soils won’t readily absorb the heavy rainfall, which could lead to areas of excessive runoff, worsening the flood threat.

Rafael blocked from posing a direct threat to the U.S.

As we’ve covered in previous newsletters, Rafael isn’t expected to pose a significant wind threat to the mainland U.S.

Whether the low-pressure area even makes it to U.S. soil is questionable as models continue to shift westward with its future track.

Forecast tracks from the overnight runs of our most reliable global models. Models have trended westward over the Gulf with Rafael’s future track, with the European model (red line) farthest south and west and the American GFS model (green line) farthest north. The official forecast (black dots) is on the north side of the guidance. Regardless of track, Rafael is expected to weaken significantly over the Gulf this weekend and does not pose a significant threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Credit: Tomer Burg/University of Oklahoma

Regardless, by this weekend hostile conditions will begin to quickly take a toll on Rafael over the central or northern Gulf, and the system is unlikely to survive into next week.

The farther north and closer to the U.S. Rafael gets, the more rapidly its demise will occur from very strong upper-level winds and dry continental air courtesy of November. A more southern track could extend Rafael’s journey, but either way what’s left of Rafael will be on a weakening trend this weekend and it isn’t expected to directly threaten the U.S.

Disturbance to pass south of Florida this weekend with little fanfare

An area of low pressure spun off from a cold front northeast of the easternmost Caribbean islands is forecast to move toward Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba this weekend.

The system has a low chance of developing before reaching Cuba but will wash out south of Florida and only act to increase rain chances across South Florida early next week.