Monitoring the Northern Gulf and Southeast U.S. for the Fourth of July Weekend

An area of low pressure could gradually take shape along an old front by late week into next weekend

A stalled front across Florida’s peninsula later this week could spawn a tropical system over the northeastern Gulf or off the southeast U.S. by the Fourth of July weekend.

For now the National Hurricane Center is keeping development odds low but given the warmth of the waters in the region and the tendency for old frontal zones to pinch off tropical systems this time of year, it wouldn’t be surprising if development odds come up with this one in the days ahead.

For now at least, forecast models keep development limited, with the handful of scenarios that do spin something up primarily suggesting a sloppy holiday rainmaker for parts of the Gulf Coast or the southeast U.S., rather than a more organized windmaker.

Low-pressure tracks through next Tuesday, June 9, 2025, from the European model ensemble system. The European model is run dozens of times with different starting conditions to give a flavor of what’s most likely. For now, the ensembles suggest low odds of development, with the handful of development scenarios indicating a tropical depression or tropical storm threat. Only one segment of one or two lines show the possibility of a stronger storm or hurricane if a system develops and takes the long track through the western Gulf, an unlikely scenario at this time. Credit: Weathermodels.com

That said, given the proximity to land of the system, residents in these areas and folks with holiday beach plans to the region will want to check back periodically on the forecast this week.

A rainy Fourth for Florida

If something forms, it would likely glide along the east-west path of the old front north of South Florida, from off the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina into the northern Gulf. Steering patterns are light, but the western edge of the Bermuda high will keep the primary low-pressure zone north of us in southeast Florida.

The main issue for South Florida will be unsettled weather and higher rain chances for the holiday weekend from the juicy air around the southern periphery of any system that takes shape.

Either way, it’s looking like a wet late week and Fourth of July weekend for much of the Sunshine State, especially from central Florida into southern Georgia and along Florida’s Gulf Coast.

7-day rainfall forecast (through next Monday morning) from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) showing the potential for heavy rainfall across Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast through the Fourth of July weekend. Credit: National Weather Service

We’ll want to watch to see where a more consolidated area of low pressure tries to form this week, which will help us iron out the details on which areas will be most affected.

Barry barely a blip and dissipates inland

The disturbance we suggested in Friday’s newsletter could overachieve over the weekend did exactly that, briefly becoming Tropical Storm Barry on Sunday before coming ashore as a Tropical Depression Sunday night.

The main impact from the short-lived storm has been heavy rainfall to parts of Mexico.

Together, Andrea and Barry, the first two named storms of the hurricane season, produced an anemic 0.6 on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE scale and together lasted as tropical storms hardly a full 24 hours.

Never in the modern record (since at least 1950) have the first two storms of the season produced so little activity as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE.