Milton a Major Hurricane, Catastrophic Storm Surge Forecast for Florida's West Coast

Milton rapidly intensifies Monday morning, life-threatening conditions expected along Florida’s west coast starting late Tuesday or early Wednesday

Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified Monday morning into a dangerous major hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico and is on track to deliver yet another devastating blow to the Sunshine State less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene ravaged parts of Florida’s west coast and sweeping Big Bend.

The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting up to 12 feet of catastrophic storm surge from Venice, Florida, northward to Tarpon Springs, including Tampa, St. Pete, Clearwater, and Sarasota.

It’s the highest storm surge forecast ever explicitly issued by the National Hurricane Center for Tampa Bay.

Many areas along Florida’s Sun Coast – including places like Treasure Island – that were recently hit with their worst storm surge flooding in modern memory from Helene, are now facing a forecast that threatens storm surge levels nearly twice that wrought by Helene.

Historical high and low tides for Tampa Bay back to 1996 (the storm tide record for the Old Port tide gauge), with storm tides greater than 3 feet outlined by the blue circles. Notice the lowest storm tide ever recorded was during Ian in September 2022 as the offshore winds pushed waters out of Tampa Bay. The official NHC forecast of 8-12 feet for Milton is the highest ever explicitly issued for Tampa Bay and would be nearly double the levels reached two weeks ago during Helene.

If Milton’s center passes near or north of Tampa Bay and high-end forecasts materialize, it would be the worst storm surge the Tampa area has seen in over a century.

Milton’s track is critical to where the worst of its storm surge pushes ashore. Like football, storm surge can be a game of inches, and 20 to 30 miles can mean the difference between catastrophic flooding and mostly dry land. Unfortunately, the average forecast error even 12 to 24 hours before landfall is 20-40 miles. Florida’s oblique peninsula magnifies these typical errors, which makes it impossible to know the exact details of where the worst storm surge will strike.

Storm surge is historically the single deadliest hazard of a hurricane, responsible for more than half of all hurricane related deaths over the past 50 years, and is the primary reason evacuations are issued ahead of hurricanes.

A storm surge watch is currently in effect for Florida’s entire west coast to Cedar Key in the Big Bend. If you’re in a low-lying coastal area at risk for storm surge flooding, remember in many cases you need only evacuate a few miles inland (not hundreds of miles) to find a higher spot and away from life-threatening coastal storm surge.

Milton explosively strengthening

Milton is in the midst of an explosive strengthening trend and is forecast to be near or at Category 5 intensity by early Tuesday morning. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes are a rare breed any time of year, but they’re especially rare over the Gulf of Mexico this late in the hurricane season.

Hurricane Milton enhanced satellite loop through 9:30 AM ET Monday during its ongoing rapid intensification. Credit: TropicalTidbits.com

The last Category 4 or 5 hurricane in the Gulf this deep in the hurricane season was Hurricane Michael on its approach to north Florida in 2018.

Milton should strengthen or maintain its strength until around late Tuesday when upper-level winds are expected to ramp up near the hurricane. While the stronger upper-winds could reduce its strongest winds as it nears the coast, it’s expected to be too little too late, and Milton will remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.

In fact, even if its maximum winds come down from its peak, as expected before striking the shore Wednesday or early Thursday, the increasing upper-level winds may make Milton a much larger hurricane, which could sweep a more extensive storm surge ashore and leave a wider footprint as the hurricane marches quickly inland.

The greatest threat for damaging winds inland lies in the swath north of Lake Okeechobee through the I-4 corridor between Tampa and Daytona Beach to near and south of Gainesville.

Track forecasts have been fairly consistent in taking the center of Milton inland somewhere between Fort Myers and Cedar Key, with the American GFS being farthest north near Cedar Key, the European model centered on Tampa, and the UKMET farthest south and along Florida’s southwest shoreline near Naples and Fort Myers.

Odds of Milton’s center passing to within about 100 miles of any given location, along with track forecasts from the GFS (green), UKMET (blue), ensembles (gray) and the average of all reliable global forecast models (black line). The official NHC forecast points are noted by the black circles. Track forecasts have been fairly consistent and suggest Milton will come ashore somewhere between Cedar Key to the north and Fort Myers to the south by late Wednesday. Credit Tomer Burg/University of Oklahoma

Storm surge will also be a concern for northeast Florida, including Florida’s First and Space Coasts, as Milton moves into the Atlantic waters on Thursday.

Another day of heavy rains for South Florida

The urban I-95 corridor of southeast Florida saw widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches over the past 24 hours, with higher amounts farther south near Homestead, from yesterday’s Predecessor Rain Event or PRE ahead of Milton.

We expect another day of heavy rain, with waves of tropical downpours similar to Sunday, which could lead to areas of flash and urban flooding. Another widespread 3-5 inches or rainfall is possible today with up to 6 inches or more locally for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.

By Tuesday afternoon, the heaviest rain threat shifts to the north and west of southeast Florida and by Wednesday and early Thursday, the greatest inland flood threat will be near and to the north of where Milton moves inland, most likely from the I-4 corridor northward across northeast Florida and parts of southeast Georgia.

The National Weather Service continues to promote a moderate risk of excessive rainfall, its second highest flood category, for southeast Florida today and for north-central and northeast Florida for mid-week.

A trio of October hurricanes

In addition to Milton, Leslie and Kirk continue to churn as hurricanes over the open Atlantic well away from the U.S. This is the first time on record that we’ve observed three concurrent hurricanes in the Atlantic in October.

Leslie peaked as a near-Category 2 hurricane and should gradually weaken over the open waters of the central Atlantic this week. Kirk is shedding its tropical characteristics today and will accelerate toward Europe this week as part of a larger extratropical storm system.