Melissa Forecast to Rapidly Strengthen into a Major Hurricane this Weekend
Melissa threatens to be a two-pronged disaster for the central Caribbean, first as a prolific rainmaker, then as a blockbuster hurricane
Tropical Storm Melissa continued to struggle early Thursday as it crawled several hundred miles south of Jamaica and Haiti over the central Caribbean.
Satellite data and Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigating Melissa Thursday morning found its circulation notably disrupted by relentless wind shear spraying the storm from the west. As we discussed in Wednesday’s newsletter, forecast models have consistently underestimated wind shear in the vicinity of Melissa, and that continues to be the case today.
Nevertheless, as Melissa drifts westward south of Jamaica this weekend, it’s expected to sneak underneath the upper-level high that’s been the source of its wind shear woes, which will act like an open flue to a fire, ventilating convection and hastening its organization, especially by Sunday into Monday.
With the advent of high-resolution hurricane models and improvements in hurricane intensity guidance, the National Hurricane Center has only recently begun explicitly forecasting dangerous episodes of rapid intensification – defined as at least a 35 mph increase in maximum sustained winds within 24 hours.
Usually these bold rapid intensification forecasts are reserved for shorter lead times – typically about a day or two in advance – but on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center explicitly forecast rapid intensification three to four days out for the first time, according to statistics compiled by meteorologist Tomer Burg.
NHC is calling for Melissa to reach hurricane status on Saturday then take advantage of the slackened upper-level winds and deep well of warm water to quickly rocket to a major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane early next week as it meanders near or just south of Jamaica.
The official forecast takes Melissa to Category 4 status by early next Tuesday, a more aggressive forecast stance than most intensity aids – including the corrected consensus model (HCCA in the plot below) and Google’s DeepMind (GDMI in the plot below), both of which have proven to be strong performers so far in 2025 – but below the very bullish high-resolution hurricane models like NOAA’s next-generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System or HAFS (HFAI and HFBI in the plot below) that show Melissa flirting with or reaching Category 5 status early next week.
It’s certainly not unreasonable to expect Melissa to overperform early next week given the exceptionally warm Caribbean reservoir, especially if upper-level winds relax as models predict. Melissa will be moving over near-record warm waters for the time of year, which as we’ve seen several times already this season, can lead to ferocious hurricanes when the atmospheric environment is ripe.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti and Jamaica for the possibility of hurricane conditions (74 mph winds or stronger) in the coming days.
Melissa’s Caribbean trudge threatens severe flooding
The first order of business to contend with will be Melissa’s deluge across the north-central Caribbean.
Because the storm will meander at a snail’s pace into next week, it brings the threat of extreme rainfall totals upwards of 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm) to parts of Jamaica, southern Haiti, and the southern Dominican Republic, which could lead to life-threatening flash flooding, mudslides, and landslides across the region.
The heaviest rainfall will begin Friday but continue into next week for many of the same places.
Unfortunately for the central Caribbean, it may not be until Tuesday to Thursday of next week that Melissa finally finds an escape route as a cold front dives in from the west and accelerates it northeastward.
The bad news is Melissa is likely to be a much stronger system by then and could target Jamaica or Cuba head on as a major hurricane.
Melissa not a mainland U.S. concern for now
As we’ve outlined in newsletters earlier this week, the jet stream pattern over the next week won’t favor the mainland U.S. being in the sights of Melissa for the foreseeable future, especially for us here in Florida.
Models are in nearly unanimous agreement with Melissa tracking safely east of Florida next week, though those with interests in the Bahamas should follow the forecasts closely, as Melissa could pass through by mid to late next week.
A few longer-range scenarios do try to pinwheel Melissa or what’s left of it back toward the northeastern U.S. or Atlantic Canada later next week around a negatively-tilted trough (jet stream dip). For now these remain outlier scenarios – mainly confined to a few members of Google’s DeepMind hurricane model – and even then too far out to carry much weight.
We’ll of course keep an eye on the trends, but for now it’s just something to monitor.
Fingers crossed that that super high heat content don't deliver the higher end of the projections (some models showing 200+mph). No need to tip the ACE to new highs.
Fingers and toes crossed that Google’s DeepMind hurricane model is correct...I watch for your email every day!