Lee Forecast to be a Major Hurricane by Tomorrow, Pass North of the Islands this Weekend

Powerful Hurricane Lee expected to slow and turn next week before posing a problem for Florida

After quickly strengthening into a hurricane yesterday, Lee leveled off overnight but strengthening is expected to resume today, perhaps at a rapid clip. The Category 1 hurricane is forecast to reach major (Category 3 or stronger) status by Friday and pass north of the northern Caribbean islands as a powerful Category 4 hurricane over the weekend. While the islands will escape the worst of the dangerous hurricane, periphery impacts, including trailing rainbands and hazardous marine conditions – including high surf and life-threatening rip currents – will pose a threat into early next week.

Forecast models are in good agreement with slowing Lee down and turning the hurricane northward by early next week, well before it presents a threat to Florida.

Full steam ahead

The Atlantic has already demonstrated an ability to churn out big, strong hurricanes in 2023, like two Category 4 hurricanes – Franklin and Idalia – before the end of August. Lee looks to soon add its name to the growing list of major hurricanes this season.

The National Hurricane Center is explicitly forecasting rapid intensification (at least a 35 mph increase in maximum winds) over the next 24 hours. By Saturday, the official forecast is for Lee to be flirting with Category 5 intensity as one of the most powerful hurricanes we’ve seen on this side of the planet this year.

The environment surrounding Lee is ripe for strengthening, with very light upper-level winds, plentiful moisture, and a deep reservoir of ocean heat. It’s only a matter of when and not if Lee takes off.

Lee avoiding land for now

Despite a track far west in the Atlantic, steering currents will fortunately maneuver the core of the powerful hurricane safely north of the northernmost Caribbean islands – including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands – this weekend into early next week. Even though they’ll escape the worst of Lee, the islands will still feel Lee’s presence, from high surf and life-threatening rip currents to gusty winds and the potential for trailing rainbands and intermittent tropical downpours.

By next Monday and Tuesday, Lee will begin to slow down and turn northward as it rounds the western edge of the subtropical high-pressure steering.

This all-important turn will happen well east of Florida, sparing the state next week from another hurricane threat. Those in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos will need to continue to monitor the forecast trends, but at least for now, forecast models show this happening northeast of these areas.

Odds of Lee’s center passing within about 100 miles of a given location based on overnight runs of our most reliable global forecast models. Model runs continue to advertise a turn northward east of the Bahamas and Florida by early next week. Credit: Tomer Burg/University of Oklahoma

It's too early to say much beyond early next week, but Bermuda especially should check in frequently for forecast updates.

The bottom line

Lee is forecast to rapidly strengthen today and become a major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane by tomorrow. While the hurricane will pass safely north of the Caribbean islands this weekend, fringe hazards including dangerous surf, life-threatening rip currents, and occasional tropical downpours are still possible. Lee is expected to turn north well before posing a threat to Florida, but the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos should continue to monitor the forecasts. Bermuda may fall in the crosshairs of Lee next week, but it’s too soon to say anything with confidence this far out.

Margot in the making

The disturbance that rolled off Africa earlier this week and is now near the Cabo Verde islands – dubbed Invest 96L – is showing signs of organization. A tropical depression or storm will likely form in the next day or two as it moves off to the northwest. Models show future Margot strengthening into a hurricane by next week, but other than the weather affecting the Cabo Verde islands today, the storm system will remain out to sea.

Jova turning heads in the eastern Pacific

Category 5 Jova late Wednesday night over the eastern Pacific. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 160 mph Thursday morning. Credit: University of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center (SSEC)

Jova, barely a hurricane in the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday over the open eastern Pacific, rapidly intensified yesterday to a monster Category 5 hurricane by late evening. The quick rate of strengthening – 85 mph in only 24 hours – is one exceeded by few storms and reminds us how fast powerful hurricanes can form. Thankfully, Jova is expected to stay out to sea.